2021: A rupture in Tamil Nadu politics
With the iconic leaders of the Dravidian movement gone, two debutants — EPS and Stalin — are leading their parties for the first time in the assembly polls. At stake is the legacy and future of both the DMK and the AIADMK
Every election is different but the coming assembly elections in Tamil Nadu — the state goes to polls in a single phase on April 6, and the results will be declared on May 2 — are especially different. They are different because incumbent chief minister (CM) Edapaddi K Palaniswami, 66, of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), and Muthuvel Karunanidhi Stalin, 68, of the Dravida Munnetra Kazgaham (DMK) are both debutants in a way. This is surprising not just because of their age, but also experience — Edapaddi, or EPS as the CM is popularly known, was first elected to the assembly in 1989, having entered politics as a member of the AIADMK in 1974, and Stalin, was first elected to the assembly in 1989, having been elected to the general committee of the DMK in 1973. In the six assembly elections since, EPS didn’t contest one, won thrice and lost twice; Stalin lost once, and won five times (in a row).
They are both debutants because their parties have never fought an assembly election under their leadership. In 2016, J Jayalalithaa led the AIADMK to a second successive win (she died in December that year); the DMK was led by party patriarch and Stalin’s father, Muthuvel Karunanidhi, who, at 92, was the party’s unambiguous leader and chief ministerial candidate (he died in 2018).
Sure, Stalin led the party to a sweep in the Lok Sabha elections of 2019 — the DMK-led United Progressive Alliance in the state won 38 of the 39 seats on offer — but this will be the first assembly election in which he is heading the party, although his position as Karunanidhi’s heir was settled within the party as far back as 1994 (with the exit of Vaiyapuri Gopalsamy or Vaiko), and within the family in 2014 with the expulsion of his elder brother MK Alagiri from the party.
And sure, EPS, a surprise choice as CM — he was picked by Jayalalithaa’s friend and companion VK Sasikala in the scrum that followed the former’s death — quickly established himself; struck a powerful alliance with his one-time rival O Paneerselvam; expelled his mentor, Sasikala, from the party; convinced her, perhaps with some help from ally Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), to stay away from the election; and over the past few years, has acquired the reputation of a good administrator, but will be leading his party into an assembly election for the first time.
Stalin is counting on the party’s organisational strength, his dynastic advantage (yes it is real; just as it is for his son, who is making his debut this election), anti-incumbency against the AIADMK, and the latter’s significant internal issues which may have been far-too-recently resolved to make a difference in this election.
EPS is hoping that his stint as CM (he has managed to come across as a bit of a people’s CM), Stalin’s lack of experience running the state, the resolution of internal differences within the party, and the blessings of India’s political hegemon, the BJP, will be enough to bring him back to power. If that doesn’t happen, Sasikala is waiting in the wings to take over.
The elections are also different because for the first time since 1967, when the DMK, then headed by C N Annadurai or Anna (Karunanidhi was his deputy) came to power in the state, the elections are happening in the absence of iconic larger-thanlife leaders who pretty much defined Dravidian politics for five decades. Anna died in 1969 and Karunanidhi, who had already made his name as a scriptwriter for Tamil movies, succeeded him.
In 1972, matinee idol and Karunanidhi’s friend, M G Ramachandran, broke away from the DMK to form the AIADMK, which came to power in the state in 1977. From 1977 to his death in 1989, MGR and his party were invincible. After his death, the party was headed by his protégé and co-star in Tamil movies Jayalalithaa.
Between 1989 and 2011, the two parties (starting with the DMK), alternated in power, till Jayalalithaa broke the cycle by leading the AIADMK to a win in 2016. But none of them is around in this election. Karunanidhi was 45 when he first became CM; MGR, 60; and Jayalalithaa, 43. EPS was already the oldest first-time CM of the state when he took over in 2017. Now, if opinion polls are accurate, this distinction will fall on Stalin. It will be a generational change in the state, but 66 and 68 are not usually the ages one would associate with that term.
The polls are also different because the BJP is contesting as a partner of the AIADMK in the state elections for the first time. In 2016, the party, which has always had an insignificant presence in the state, contested all 234 seats and won none (it received 2.86% of the vote share). This time, it is contesting 20 seats. The BJP has been hamstrung by its image in the state — as a North Indian party of Hindi speakers and Brahmins. It has consciously tried to move away from that image in recent times, adopting in Tamil Nadu the same strategy that worked for it in Uttar Pradesh, and which helped it get a start in West Bengal. This involves appealing to Hindus belonging to the most-backward classes and scheduled tribes, those that haven’t necessarily benefited from the politics of affirmative action (and Tamil Nadu is a case study in that), although, thanks to the state’s social development metrics, this section is still better off in Tamil Nadu than in most other states. Still, it will be interesting to see if this makes any difference.
PS: Chanakya would be amiss if he didn’t mention the Congress, which is contesting 25 seats as an ally of the DMK. It ruled the state till 1967, but has since become weaker with every passing election. In 2016 too, it was an ally of the DMK, but won only eight seats, a fifth of the 41 it contested, dooming the larger partner (which won half the 178 seats it contested) to another stint in opposition. That may have been a factor in the DMK playing hardball with seats this election.