On Covid, Delhi’s reactive strategy

One month ago, the early signs of a fourth Covid-19 wave began to appear in Delhi. The case trajectory had bottomed out on February 12 with 125 new cases, leading to complacency from the administration, laxity from the public, and premature vaccine jubilance from both. But it, then, slowly started to rise, with the average positivity rate jumping from 0.4% to 2.7% between March 1 and March 31. By then, Maharashtra was already in the grip of a raging outbreak, and reports of infections were growing across the country. The national daily case count went from 15,478 to 61,954 over the four weeks. It was clear that the question was not if, but when, the outbreak would reach Delhi. Delhi needed to act fast, and get ahead of the curve.

But as the number of new Covid-19 infections have soared past previous peaks at an alarming rate over the last two weeks, it is clear the administration chose to be reactive rather than proactive. Some curbs were announced last week, when the daily case count was around 6,000. And on Thursday, after 17,282 new infections were reported the previous day, the government announced a weekend curfew. It has also shut gyms, spas and malls, allowed cinema halls to operate at 30% capacity, and shut dine-in facilities in restaurants. The curfew and the measures are steps in the right direction. But they have come when Covid-19 is taking a heavy toll again, and the Capital’s health facilities are in danger of being overwhelmed in days if trends continue. Delhi can still fight back with enforcement by the authorities and compliance by people, but things could have been prevented from coming to such a pass if the government and citizens had been more watchful. The next few days will be crucial.