Monsoon arrives in India albeit late: IMD
Southwest monsoon makes onset over Kerala two days late, to begin covering rest of the country
NEW DELHI: The monsoon arrived in Kerala on Thursday two days behind schedule and advanced into parts of the south Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep, Tamil Nadu, southwest Bay of Bengal, and remaining areas of the Comorin-Maldives area, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in a statement.
The arrival of monsoon, crucial to the country’s farm-dependent economy, is announced based on factors such as wind speed, consistency of rainfall, intensity, and cloud cover. It arrives in Kerala first before covering the rest of India by July.
IMD said over 60% of Kerala’s 14 key rainfall monitoring stations reported 2.5 mm or more rainfall over the last two days. It said the spatial rain distribution in Kerala remained fairly widespread during the same time.
IMD said the westerly winds have strengthened in the lower levels with speeds up to 20 knots. It added satellite imagery and coastal Doppler Weather Radars in the region suggested persistent convection (cloudiness). IMD said all these parameters were to be fulfilled for the monsoon onset declaration in Kerala.
India receives about 70% of its annual rain during the fourmonth monsoon that is crucial for rice, soybean, and cotton cultivation. Good rainfall has been a prime reason for the farm sector’s resilience for two years, and its ability last year to buck the Covid-19 pandemic. As much as 60% of the sown area does not have access to irrigation in India, where over 150 milli on farmers and nearly half of the population are dependent on a farm-based income. The monsoon also replenishes 89 nationally important reservoirs critical for drinking and power generation.
IMD said the monsoon is likely to advance into the remaining areas of the south Arabian Sea, Kerala, Lakshadweep, and parts of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, central Arabian Sea coastal and south interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, and south and the central Bay of Bengal during the next two days.
In its second long-range forecast on Tuesday, IMD said monsoon rainfall was likely to be normal at 101% of the long-period average (LPA) after two years of above-average rainfall. LPA is the average rainfall (88cm) recorded in India every year between June and September from 1961 to 2010.
In 2020 and 2019, the monsoon was above normal at 110% and 109% of LPA.
In 1996, 1997, and 1998, the monsoon was normal at 103.4%, 102.2%, and 104%, according to IMD.
India recorded 18% excess rain during the pre-monsoon
period from March 1 to May 31. Of 36 subdivisions, 17 recorded over 60% excess rainfall categorised as “large excess”.
Nine subdivisions reported 20 to 59% excess rain in the “excess” bracket. Six subdivisions received (-19 to 19%) rain categorised as “normal”. Only four subdivisions received -59 to -20% rainfall.
Most of central, east, and west India recorded large excess rain including parts of peninsular India like Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Konkan, and Goa.
Most of northeast India and Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh were deficient.
“Monsoon is likely to progress to remaining parts of Kerala, some parts Karnataka, parts of Tamil Nadu, Rayalseema etc in the next two days. Monsoon flow is active,” said RK Jenamani, senior scientist at the national weather forecasting centre,
“There are chances of a monsoon depression developing between June 10 to 12 over northwest Bay of Bengal. This is good news because such monsoon depressions help pull the monsoon current and entire east India may be covered with support of the depression,” the official added.