Iran votes today to pick a new president; Ebrahim Raisi tipped to win
TEHRAN: The front-runner in Friday’s presidential election in Iran is an austere cleric and judiciary chief hostile to the West, who’s expected to prevail as millions boycott a vote their favoured reformist candidates weren’t allowed to contest.
The stage-managed elevation of Ebrahim Raisi, 60, carries risks for the country’s guiding hand, supreme leader Ali Khamenei, given the ayatollah’s desire to quickly rid Iran of US sanctions and a history of political unrest. But the 82-year-old Khamenei is eyeing a sweep of leadership positions for ultraconservatives, and Raisi’s widely considered his preferred successor.
A Raisi victory would ensure a “level of harmony” among the establishment, said Foad Izadi, associate professor at Tehran University’s Faculty of World Studies, after a maximum eight years under the more moderate Hassan Rouhani punctuated by rancour.
Rouhani remains in office until August, giving his negotiators a few more weeks to revive the 2015 agreement with world powers that lifted penalties on Iran’s economy and curtailed its atomic programme until Donald Trump withdrew the US. The diplomacy is being watched by oil traders eager to understand when Iranian crude might flood the market.
Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, foresees a grand bargain. “The system probably prefers the deal to be restored under Rouhani, so that he shoulders the blame for any shortcomings but Raisi reaps the economic dividends,” he said. Raisi’s unlikely to make compromises the Rouhani administration couldn’t accept, so “if the nuclear deal isn’t restored by August, it’s probably beyond repair”.