Eye on 2022, every party going east

Eastern UP is aflutter with political activity as leaders of all hues hold meetings and mobilize cadre to strengthen their base

VARANASI: Even though the Uttar Pradesh state assembly elections are over six months away, most of the political parties, both big and small, have started going east.

Realising the significance of the politically sensitive eastern UP, leaders of all hues are holding back-to-back meetings and mobilizing their workers to strengthen their base before Mission 2022.

BJP leaders and workers held over 40 meetings in Varanasi and other eastern UP districts in the past 50 days, according to a party leader. The party workers were asked to go to the people and apprise them of various welfare schemes launched by the BJP government at the centre and in the state.

Likewise, Samajwadi Party leaders held around 20 meetings in Varanasi and adjoining areas. SP MLC Ashutosh Sinha said, “I held meetings with party workers in Varanasi, Jaunpur, Sonbhadra, Ghazipur and Chandauli to mobilize them for Mission 2022 as well as ZP president election in these districts. Several meetings have also been held in Ballia, Azamgarh, Bhadohi and Mirzapur districts.”

Rajvan Singh Patel, state unit president of Apna Dal led by Krishna Patel, held meetings with party workers in Sonbhadra, Varanasi, Mirzapur and Chandauli.

Leaders of Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) led by Ompraskash Rajbhar, which claims to enjoy the support of the Rajbhar community, is holding daily meetings with grassroots level workers in bordering districts, including Ballia, Ghazipur and Chandauli as part of preparations for the coming state assembly polls, as per SBSP state unit vice president Shashi Pratap Singh. Ramachal Rajbhar, who was recently expelled from the BSP, held a meeting with Rajbhar community members under the banner of Ramachal Rajbhar Sangharsh Morcha in Varanasi a few days ago to show his strength.

Ram Achal Rajbhar said, “By following the path shown by Kanshi Ram, I work for the welfare of the Bahujan Samaj to ensure that it would be part of the government after assembly elections 2022.”

He also indicated that he would not hesitate in joining hands with any outfit which would give a share to the Bahujan Samaj people after coming to power. Babu Singh Kushwaha also toured several districts of UP in the recent past.

According to Census 2011, OBCs constitute 40%, general or forward caste-23%, SCs—20 %, STs— 0.1%, Muslims-19% and others-0.9% of the population in Uttar Pradesh.

Apart from five assembly seats in Mirzapur and Sonbhadra, OBCs and SCs play decisive roles in elections on over 50 assembly seats out of 63 in 10 districts, including eastern UP, say political experts. As OBCs and Dalit community together make 60%, every political party, big or small, is trying to win their support. Prof Satish Kumar, a political analyst, said, “In eastern UP, several smaller parties have started the exercise to expand their base in various communities for gains in the coming 2022 elections. Every party is trying to create social engineering with special focus on OBCs and SCs. However, they will unfold their moves as elections approach. Therefore, political polarization of the smaller parties cannot be predicted.”

Prof Rai said that the smaller parties would weigh the options before opening their cards. However, he said it was clear that social engineering created by the ruling BJP before the assembly elections in 2017 was not maintained. The opposition Samajwadi Party, which still enjoys strong support in various eastern UP district, would certainly take advantage of anti-incumbency, and smaller parties like SBSP were angry with the ruling party. At present, both the SP and BJP are claiming that their party candidates will win for more ZP district unit president seats in eastern UP.

Prof Kaushal Kishore Mishra, dean, faculty of social sciences, BHU, said, “Eastern UP has always been politically crucial. Its political significance has further increased as Varanasi, which is part of eastern UP, is the parliamentary constituency of Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the past over seven years.”

From the Varanasi parliamentary seat, Modi won the general elections in 2014 and 2019 consecutively.

“The smaller parties also understand the political significance of eastern UP well. That is why these political parties have started the exercise to increase their political strength in the eastern UP so that they may bargain well with the major political parties for contesting the assembly election 2022, though the elections are over seven months away,” Prof Mishra said.

He said that some of these smaller political outfits had influence on five to 10 seats in eastern UP due to support from their castes. Some others had influence on 10 to 20 seats. Though candidates of these political parties could not win elections on the basis of their base support, they could spoil the game of candidates of major political parties.

Prof Mishra said Lucknow may be the state capital, but smaller parties and leaders who had been expelled from big parties like BSP held meetings in Varanasi because it was the centre of eastern UP. As the way to power in Delhi went through UP, so the way to power in UP went through eastern UP, he said.

In 10 districts under three divisions, including Azamgarh, Varanasi, and Mirzapur of Easter UP, there are 61 assembly seats. Out of 61 in the 2017 UP assembly elections, the BJP had won 34, its ally Apna Dal (S)-4, SBSP-3, while the SP won 12 seats and the BSP 7 seats.