UP: Six variables will shape polls
Social alliances, religious polarisation and the narrative around Covid-19 are key
The battle for Uttar Pradesh (UP) has begun. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is focused on internal housekeeping — getting its leaders to bridge differences and strengthen the organisation — and external projection, with an emboldened Yogi Adityanath, after a period of uncertainty, highlighting his achievements. As the principal Opposition, the Samajwadi Party (SP) is projecting Akhilesh Yadav as a leader with a credible record, recruiting new leaders, and questioning Mr Adityanath’s governance. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Congress will play a role, but the main fault line is between the BJP and SP. The outcome will be determined by six variables.
One, will the upper caste compact behind the BJP hold? There have been rumblings among Brahmins about Thakur-dominance. But whether this is enough to swing them away from the BJP, or whether issues of Hindutva, winnability, and Prime Minister’s Narendra Modi’s appeal will keep them with the party is key. Two, have contradictions within Other Backward Classes (OBCs) deepened or shrunk? If there is a wider backward consciousness, the SP benefits, and thus, it is attempting to expand its base among other backward sub-castes. If nonYadav OBCs continue to prefer the BJP, despite complaints over inadequate representation, because of the fear of Yadav dominance and promise of a reworked reservation system through OBC subcategorisation, the incumbent benefits. Three, do Dalits see the BJP as a party which hurts their interests, or has the BJP’s co-option of non-Jatav Dalits remained steady? Given the BSP’s weakness, and the Congress’s inconsistent attempts to woo Dalits, the BJP retains the edge. Four, will Jats and non-Jat farming communities in western UP in the backdrop of the farm agitation, switch from the BJP? The incumbent faces a real challenge in neutralising local anger here. And has the Hindu-Muslim fault line become more entrenched or less salient? In the backdrop of majoritarian communal politics redefining the nature of the state in UP, the gulf may have grown. This suits the BJP.
But beyond this, the outcome will be determined by the narrative around Covid. Will the government succeed with its communication offensive in erasing the memories of its mistakes, or will the suffering of the second wave lead to anger against the regime? It is this mix of identity-related issues with the narrative around the pandemic that each party will seek to shape in the next eight months.