Kabul will fall soon after US exit: Intel
WASHINGTON: US intelligence has warned that Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, could fall to the resurgent Taliban group within six months of the departure of the last of the US and international troops, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, ahead of a White House meeting on Friday between President Joe Biden and top Afghan leaders Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah.
The warning came amid growing international concern about Taliban making gains since May 1, when the US and allied troops began leaving Afghanistan in accordance with a timeline announced by Biden for completing the withdrawal by September 11 - the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks that had led to the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001.
India, a key stakeholder in Afghanistan’s reconstruction, called for a UN-led ceasefire in the country during a UN Security Council debate on Monday, pointing to a sudden escalation in violence in the country since May 1.
The Wall Street Journal reported that US intelligence experts had earlier assessed that the government of President Ghani would survive for two years after the US withdrawal based roughly on the time it took for the fall of Saigon in Vietnam after US troop pullout in 1975.
US intelligence and military analysts have since revised their assessment and now believe that Kabul could fall in six to 12 months after the departure of American troops, the WSJ reported, adding that officials in other western countries fear the capital could fall far sooner, possibly in three months.
US military has planned to wind up the withdrawal by as soon as July, going down from the 3,500 currently stationed there to zero, barring a small force to be left behind for the protection of American diplomatic missions and officials.
“I will say that while, in general, we are seeing elevated attacks on ANDSF (Afghan National Defence and Security Forces) and Afghan government versus a year ago, we have not seen an increase in attacks on our military presence since February 2020,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in response to a question about the rapid military gains made by the Taliban.
THE WARNING CAME AMID GROWING INTERNATIONAL CONCERN ABOUT TALIBAN MAKING GAINS SINCE MAY