‘Indiatoseedouble-digit growth in current fiscal’
Niti Aayog V-C Rajiv Kumar says India is prepared to deal with another Covid wave
NEW DELHI: With India’s story remaining “very strong”, the economy will register a doubledigit growth in the current fiscal and the disinvestment climate also looks better, said Niti Aayog vice chairman Rajiv Kumar.
He also asserted that the country is prepared in a far better manner in case there is a Covid wave as states have also their own lessons from the previous two waves.
“We are now hopefully getting past our (Covid-19) pandemic... and the economic activities will be strengthened as we get into the second half of this (fiscal) year given what I have seen for example various indicators, including the mobility indicators,” Kumar said.
The Indian economy has been adversely impacted by the coronavirus pandemic and the recovery has been relatively sluggish in the wake of the second wave of the pandemic.
Against this backdrop, the Niti Aayog vice chairman exuded confidence that the economic recovery will be “very strong” and those agencies or organisations which have revised their GDP estimates downwards for this fiscal may have to revise them upwards again.
“Because, I expect India’s GDP growth this (fiscal) year would be in double digits,” he said.
The economy contracted by 7.3% in the financial year ended March 31, 2021.
The downward revisions were mainly due to slowing recovery post second Covid wave.
Indicating the possibility of a strong rebound, the Reserve Bank has pegged economic growth at 9.5% in the current fiscal that ends on March 31, 2022.
Asked when private investments will pick up, Kumar said in some sectors like steel, cement and real estate, significant investment in capacity expansion is happening already.
In the consumer durable sector, it might take longer because consumers might feel a little hesitant due to uncertainty on account of the pandemic, he said. “Full-fledged private investment recovery, we should expect by the third quarter of this fiscal year”.
Responding to a query on concerns over a possible third Covid wave, Kumar said the government is much better prepared in case such a situation comes up.
“I think the government is far better prepared now to face the third wave, if at all it does come up... I feel the impact of the third wave on the economy will be much weaker than it was during the second wave and the beginning of the first wave,” he said.
According to Kumar, the government’s preparation is very significant and also the states have learned their own lessons.
On whether the government will be able to achieve its ambitious disinvestment target this fiscal, Kumar said that despite the second wave of the pandemic and its significant impact on the health side, markets have remained buoyant and they touched new heights.
“I think this sentiment not only will continue but it will strengthen as we go forward... India story remains very strong especially with respect to the FDI which has now created a new record both for 2020-21 and between April to June in 2021-22,” he said.
Pointing out that a good number of IPOs of startups are lined up, he said,”the climate for disinvestment is looking better and I am very hopeful that the disinvestment target would be fully realised.” The government has budgeted ₹1.75 lakh crore from stake sales in public sector companies and financial institutions.