Nitish Kumar ups the ante
The Bihar chief minister is keeping the BJP guessing about his intent in the 2024 election
There is a silent — and a not-so-silent churn — underway within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar. Chief Minister (CM) and Janata Dal (United) leader, Nitish Kumar, has taken up two issues which will make the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), his ally, uncomfortable. The first is his demand for a discussion on Pegasus — echoing the voice of Opposition parties which have disrupted
Parliament on the issue. The government isn’t keen on a discussion. His second demand, more explosive, is for a caste census. This is in line with what “social justice” parties, representing backward and Dalit communities, have long asked for. In 2011, there was a socio-economic caste census for rural India; its detailed findings on the basis of caste are not in the public domain. What Mr Kumar is now asking for is a caste-wise demographic profile of India’s population, on the lines of the 1931 census. This will help in giving a more accurate sense of India’s social diversity, but will also reinforce the politics of group identities, open new fault lines, affect policy on reservations, and upset the BJP’s multi-caste coalition.
There is a clear political subtext to these demands — Mr Kumar is seeking to enhance his power vis-àvis the BJP. The CM drove a hard bargain on equal seat-sharing during the Lok Sabha elections. In the run-up to the 2020 assembly polls, Mr Kumar felt that the BJP sought to undercut him by propping up Chirag Paswan as an independent player. While the CM kept his counsel, he extracted his revenge after coming back to power. Despite the BJP emerging as the senior partner, Mr Kumar has firmly kept control over the levers of power — causing much frustration in the former’s ranks. He also encouraged the Lok Janshakti Party to oust Chirag Paswan, and succeeded in keeping him out of the national cabinet.
And he has raised new demands to keep the BJP second-guessing his intent. Will he stay the course with the BJP? Will he shift back and ally with the Rashtriya Janata Dal and Congress? Is he is raising the political pitch to extract some concession from the national party? Or is this a signal to both the BJP and the rest of the political class that the JD(U)’s options for 2024 are open? While the answer will be clear over time, Nitish Kumar is aiming to secure an upper hand in the power dynamic with his ally.