Covid: Lessons from Kerala’s experience

Many held Kerala up as a national and global example on how to manage Covid-19 during the first wave of the pandemic. But, as a Covid-19 column this newspaper ran for a little over a year pointed out, this was more smart PR than anything else. Now, Kerala accounts for 68% of cases (in terms of the seven-day daily case average on August 30). There are multiple theories about what’s happening in the state with the best social development indicators in India. Based on statistical and scientific evidence, it can be safely surmised that Kerala’s crisis is caused by a mutant strain of the original virus, and an extremely poor containment and home quarantine policy.

As evident from Delhi’s experience during the peak of the country’s second wave, a localised lockdown, stringent restrictions, and an effective containment policy are all that are needed to sharply reduce the number of cases. If Kerala is unable to do so, it is because the state doesn’t have adequate restrictions; it is ineffective at monitoring even what restrictions are in place; and people are not self-isolating when they test positive. As India opens up even more, and as many states reopen schools, it is important that everyone learn from Kerala’s experience. If there is a silver lining, it’s Kerala’s case fatality rate, which stands at 0.5% in comparison to the country’s 1.3%. Clearly, the state’s superior quality of public health care has helped — another lesson for other states. A good public health care system can lessen the impact of even an enduring wave of infections.