What India should do in Glasgow
Endorse a global target date for net-zero emissions, without committing to a national target date. And tell the developed world to first commit to a net-zero goal before 2050
One of the central themes in the United Nations (UN) climate conference, which is being held in Glasgow next month, will be net-zero carbon emission pledges by 2050. According to a June 2021 study, as many as 137 countries made some sort of net-zero declaration by that date, even though in most cases (99 out of 137), the target was only “under discussion”. India is under pressure to make a net-zero pledge. How should we respond?
Credible scientific studies suggest that global carbon emissions must be brought down to net-zero by around 2050, in order to limit global warming to the target figure of 1.5–2 degrees Celsius. This does not mean that every country can, or should, reach net-zero by 2050. On the contrary, ethics as well as practical considerations require that rich, advanced countries achieve net-zero well before 2050, while others follow later.
Climate justice demands that countries which occupy a disproportionately high share of atmospheric space (on account of excessive historical and current per capita emissions), should be the first to reduce emissions to net-zero, conceding to other countries their fair share of atmospheric space. This is required by the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR), enshrined in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) and the Paris Agreement (2015).
For practical reasons as well, the new clean technologies required for net-zero will originate mainly in technologically advanced countries which can also absorb high research and development costs. As economies of scale bring costs down, other countries will be in a position to follow suit, in accordance with their respective national circumstances.
In other words, there can be no magical year in which every country reaches the net-zero goal simultaneously. Advanced economies must take the lead and achieve net-zero emissions well before the global target year 2050. They must also provide finance and technology to expand forest cover (carbon sinks) in developing countries. This is the only basis on which we can achieve the target of bringing down global emissions to net-zero by 2050.
Many developed countries have been congratulating themselves and laying claims to “leadership” for their 2050 national net-zero pledges. As we have seen, these pledges are exceedingly modest in light of the principle of CBDRs and the national circumstances of these countries. These affluent countries should achieve the target much earlier if global emissions are to be brought down to net-zero by 2050. Their current pledges are a welcome step in the right direction, but only a first step. They must raise their ambition levels and bring forward their respective net-zero target dates.
Would it not be more meaningful for India to adopt its national target date after the leading developed countries revise their respective target dates to levels consistent with the overall objective of limiting global warming to 1.5 or even 2 degrees Celsius? To their credit, a few developed countries have set themselves more ambitious target dates. These include Finland (2035); Austria and Iceland (2040); and Germany and Sweden (2045).
The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a scenario in which “India is on track to reach net-zero emissions around the mid-2060s”. The scenario indicates that, in order to achieve this goal, India would have to progressively reduce its carbon emissions from 2022, and ensure that these emissions “never return to 2019 levels at any point”. The study does not fail to note India’s per capita emissions rank as among the lowest in the world today, and that India accounts for only 3% of historic carbon emissions from the energy and industrial sectors.
No country in the world has undergone the industrialisation process while limiting its per capita emissions to anything even remotely resembling India’s 2019 level. It is impractical for India to meet the requirement of the IEA scenario and reach net-zero emissions even by the mid-2060s.
As an environmentally responsible country, what position should India take in the Glasgow conference next month? In keeping with our traditional constructive approach of seeking points of agreement wherever possible, we should declare our support for the target of achieving global net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and pledge to contribute to the global effort in full conformity with the principle of CBDRs and our national circumstances, under the provisions of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) and the Paris Agreement (2015).
In short, we may endorse the global target date, without committing ourselves to a specific national target date, at this stage.
However, if this constructive approach is not reciprocated and pressure is brought to bear on us to declare a national target date for netzero emissions, we may need to raise the question of whether global emissions can be brought down to net-zero by 2050 unless developed countries pledge to achieve the target at much earlier dates. If these countries achieve the target only in 2050, there is little hope for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.