What G20 tells us about COP26
Chances of a breakthrough at the crucial Glasgow climate conference are slim
The two-week long United Nations (UN) climate talks in Glasgow (COP26) started on Monday, and will go on till the middle of the month. The launch of the conference came a day after the end of a meeting of the G20 grouping, which was expected to lay the platform for the climate talks. This was significant: G20 countries account for roughly 75% of the world’s emissions.
The communique issued at the end of the summit said that the G20 countries are committed to the targets set in the 2015 Paris Agreement — limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius over preindustrial levels, and preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius. It’s probably too late for the 1.5 degrees Celsius target; an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report released earlier in the year, as well as the UN’s most recent calculation based on the emission reduction commitments of countries say as much. Indeed, the UN estimates that based on the current commitments, global warming will touch 2.7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
While the G20’s commitment to the 1.5 degrees Celsius target is welcome — it is the first such promise by the grouping — it comes with almost no specifics. The communique also referred to plans to stop the funding of previous-generation coal plants and to reduce methane emissions, but the countries made no progress on deciding a deadline for netzero emissions (even differentiated deadlines) or on climate justice, perhaps signalling the fundamental dissonance that will likely play out in Glasgow. The developed countries would like India, China, and other developing countries to agree to an early netzero deadline. In turn, the latter want developed countries to offer more financial support and to commit to even earlier net-zero deadlines given their historical contribution to pollution.
Worse, Sunday’s summit also highlighted deep differences that exist even within the G20, with US President Joe Biden saying the grouping “made significant progress” and admitting that “more has to be done” but that this will “require us to continue to focus on what China is not doing, what Russia is not doing, and what Saudi Arabia is not doing”.
If the summit’s communique was expected to set the stage for Glasgow and get the climate talks off to a positive start, then Sunday’s release is a disappointment. G20’s intent and commitment to the Paris targets may provide reason for hope – and nothing more. It’s over to the Glasgow talks now.