Manufacturing PMI hits 10-month high
The manufacturing PMI increased from 55.9 in October to 57.6 in November
NEW DELHI: India’s manufacturing sector activities gained further strength in November, and witnessed the strongest increase in production and sales since February on improving market conditions, a monthly survey said on Wednesday.
The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), increased from 55.9 in October to 57.6 in November, signalling the strongest improvement in the health of the sector in ten months.
Moreover, the headline figure was well above its long-run average of 53.6.
The November data pointed towards tentative signs of an improvement in hiring activity, following three successive months of job shedding.
The October PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the fifth straight month. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
“The Indian manufacturing industry continued to expand in November, with growth gathering pace and forward-looking indices generally pointing to further improvements in the months to come,” Pollyanna De Lima, Economics Associate Director at IHS Markit, said.
Lima, however, noted that the key threat to the outlook, in addition to potential new waves of Covid-19, is inflationary pressures.
“For now, companies are absorbing most of the additional cost burdens and lifting output charges only moderately. Should raw material scarcity and shipping issues continue to feed through to purchasing prices, substantial increases in output charges could be seen, and demand resilience would be tested,” the report said.
On the price front, the cost inflationary pressures remain elevated. The rate of purchase price inflation was little changed from October’s recent high, owing to raw material supply-demand mismatches and rising transportation costs.
“Businesses were indeed worried that inflationary pressures could hamper demand and production in the year ahead, as signalled by confidence weakening to the lowest in almost a year-and-a-half,” Lima said.
The Indian economy remained on track to post the fastest growth among major economies this year as its GDP expanded by a better-than-expected 8.4% in the July-September quarter to cross pre-pandemic levels.
The economy had contracted 7.4% in the same period last year.
Indian economy has expanded at a record rate of 20.1% in the first quarter, mainly on account of the low base of last year.
In nominal terms, without adjusting for inflation, the GDP growth surged 17.5% during the second quarter under review.
After being hit by a devastating surge in virus cases stoked by Delta variant earlier this year, the situation in India has improved in recent months. Daily cases have sunk dramatically to about 10,000 after breaching 4,00,000 in May and the vaccination pace has picked up, instilling confidence in reopening businesses and industries. Streets and markets across the country are now abuzz with activity.
However, with the emergence of the Omicron variant, the economy is not yet out of the woods as the new heavily mutated variant could easily wreck havoc. According to the WHO, Omicron poses a very high risk of infection surges that could have “severe consequences” in some places.
Meanwhile, private consumption, which is a major contributor to the economy and as measured by Private Final Consumption Expenditure rose by 8.6% in the September quarter.