The TMC’s new gambit

Mamata Banerjee has a national plan. But who will benefit from it remains an open question

In the latest episode of the Trinamool Congress (TMC)’s national expansion plan, West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee travelled to Mumbai on Wednesday. In a fairly direct barb at the Congress, she declared that there was no United Progressive Alliance (UPA) left, and made an argument for regional parties to come together. Her statement comes in the backdrop of the TMC poaching Congress leaders and using Parliament to register a distinct presence from the Congress. All of this is meant to serve three objectives — showcase the TMC as the only party that has the spirit and track record after its West Bengal win to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP); showcase Ms Banerjee as a national figure who has good ties with all other non-BJP, non-Congress leaders and civil society; and ensure that the TMC is seen as the natural leader of anti-BJP constituencies, and thus, position it as the architect of a new UPA-type of arrangement.

With strategist Prashant Kishor — whose own talks with the Congress have collapsed — actively plotting her moves, Ms Banerjee has indeed catapulted herself as a key national player. But there are two obvious limits to this effort. The first is simply geographical spread. Even in the best case scenario — where the TMC sweeps Bengal, picks up a few seats in Northeast, manages to get local strongmen to join its ranks and win seats under the TMC umbrella in other states — it is still hard to see the party either defeat the BJP in its stronghold of the northern and the western parts of the country and attain the numbers which will allow it a shot at power in 2024. The second is Ms Banerjee’s own appeal. While she is, at the moment, a rallying figure for parts of the committed anti-BJP constituency, the real challenge for a leader is winning over swing voters who picked the UPA in 2004 and 2009 and have stuck to the BJP in 2014 and 2019. Her ability to win over this segment in urban and small town India — when pitted against Narendra Modi — is, at the moment, doubtful.

Indeed, that is why it is an open question whether the TMC’s aggressive self-projection will help the Opposition or, in fact, benefit the BJP. The perception of a fragmented Opposition — where parties are more interested in battling each other than the BJP — and of a crowded theatre, with multiple aspirants for prime ministership, may well reinforce the BJP’s projection of itself as a unified ruling party with a strong leader.