Chennai saw massive surge in overall deaths during 2nd wave: Study

NEW DELHI: Deaths in Chennai peaked at levels 4.75 times higher during the brutal second wave of India’s Covid-19 outbreak compared to levels observed before the onset of the pandemic, shows a new study published in the journal Lancet Infectious Diseases.

The city saw a 41% increase in overall mortality compared to pre-pandemic levels, with a higher death toll observed in poorer parts of the city during the second wave, the study found.

The study, which analyses the “excess mortality” in the Tamil Nadu capital between March 24, 2020 and June 30, 2021, adds to a growing trove of evidence that seeks to uncover crucial data uncovering the actual toll of the pandemic.

“All-cause excess death” is a generalised term that refers to the total number of deaths occurring due to all causes during a crisis that is above and beyond what would have been expected under normal conditions. To be sure, not all such excess deaths may be due to Covid-19, but during a pandemic, such major deviations in fatalities are likely to be either directly or indirectly caused by the outbreak and the stress it caused on a region’s health care system.

In the study titled “All-cause mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic in Chennai, India: an observational study”, released on Thursday, researchers analysed death registrations in Chennai in order to measure changes in fatality numbers through the pandemic.

The study was conducted by researchers from the Tamil Nadu government, Washington-based Centre for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy (CDDEP), University of California Berkeley, and Johns

Hopkins University. The study used death registration data from Tamil Nadu’s Civil Registration System (CRS) and closely matched mortality estimates from India’s demographic survey-based Sample Registration System (SRS), the authors said.

“Between March 1, 2020 and June 30, 2021, 87,870 deaths were registered in areas of Chennai district represented by the 2011 census, exceeding expected deaths by 25,990,” the study said.

It means Chennai recorded 5.2 excess deaths registered per 1,000 residents since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, marking a 41% increase in overall deaths through the period of study compared to the pre-pandemic average. The researchers found that their estimates of excess mortality (5.2 deaths per 1,000 residents) in Chennai exceeded similar findings from higher-income settings such as in the United States, United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, etc (where it ranged from 1.6-2.1 excess deaths per 1,000) despite India’s younger age distribution – a factor that many had hoped would provide relative protection to India against a disease like Covid-19 that is statistically known to be disproportionately fatal to the elderly.

Between March 1, 2020 and June 30, 2021, 87,870 deaths were registered in areas of Chennai district represented by the 2011 census, exceeding expected deaths by 25,990 STUDY