A range of challenges awaits the world in 2022
People across the world have unprecedented expectations of 2022, and I use the word unprecedented advisedly. If we look at the biggest disasters of the last century — the Spanish Flu, World War I and World War II — and now the Covid-19 pandemic, we see that the next challenge is always just around the corner.
Just when we thought the pandemic might be in retreat comes the Omicron variant, and it is little comfort that the pandemic may become endemic, as some scientists predict. We may soon get pills to combat Covid, the economic revival may gain momentum, and perhaps the world as we know it, may change forever. In the year gone by, manufacturing was seriously affected as supply chains were disrupted. This led many, including former German chancellor, Angela Merkel, to call for an end to dependence on factory output from China and India.
India with its vast resources, diverse climate, and young population is ideally suited to become self-reliant. When the seeds of British rule were planted in India, after the Battle of Plassey in 1757, our growth rate vis-à-vis the world was about 27%. Add China to this and almost half the global growth was in these two countries. Are things going into the reverse now?
A recent survey by Future Forum in the United States (US) has found that our offices are going to change; only 3% of non-White workers in the US want to return to office full time, compared to 21% of their White colleagues; 97% of non-White workers are looking for a model where they could do their jobs from remote centres. Experts believe that in 2022, skilled youth who are open to flexible work patterns will get more jobs. This could well increase gender, ethnic, and age disparities in the workplace. However, some sociologists are not in agreement with a largely work-from-home system. They believe this will increase loneliness, depression, even suicide.
This year we are going to see a new race in space. US-based companies such as SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Virgin Galactic have already taken the lead, and China has joined the fray. Its astronauts addressed schoolchildren last month from a space shuttle. This space race is going to add new tensions to the relationship between the US and China.
The intense economic competition between China and the US is also expected to reach the next level this year. If we are heading to a new Cold War era, what will India’s role in it be? This year will give us some answers. The challenge for New Delhi in relation to China is to keep our borders safe, and the Galwan clashes of 2020 show us how important it is to remain vigilant at all times.
This year is going to be challenging for the Indian establishment. The protesting farmers may have gone home after assurances from the government, but they are not satisfied. Will the government be able to sell its reforms to them? The peasant movement has given an impetus to trade unionism. India needs rapid economic reforms to keep pace with China, but reforms are creating unrest among a section of workers. In 1991, when Narasimha Rao and Manmohan Singh came up with economic reforms, we saw the extent of the uproar among unions and workers.
India has done well so far in the fight against Covid-19. The economy is slowly returning to normal. In this year full of so many expectations, will we be able to achieve the expected growth rate? Will the unorganised sector and small and medium industries regain their lost momentum? Without this, we cannot battle unemployment and recession.
The year 2022 will be a litmus test for all political parties. There are elections in five states over the next few months. Of these, Uttar Pradesh (UP) is the most important. This explains why Prime Minister Narendra Modi has thrown all his energies into the battle for the state. Is this a calculated risk? He is an astute and canny politician. He knows that even after this, if the Bharatiya Janata Party does not get a clear majority in UP, the party could be adversely affected in the 2024 general elections. There may not be any visible public disenchantment with UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath’s government.
But, there a huge crowds at Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav’s meetings. Yadav has got his caste calculations right, which is why the election has become twopronged. The Bahujan Samaj Party and the Congress have so far made little headway. These factors and the possibility of the spillover of discontent among farmers are issues that will decide the course of the all-important UP elections.
We are in a year full of hopes, fears and expectations. Let us welcome it and hope for the best.