Myanmar: Forge a fresh approach

Ayear ago, Myanmar’s military junta — unnerved by the National League for Democracy’s strengthening grip on power as reflected in the party’s victory in the 2020 election — effected a coup d’état that set in motion events that increased instability around one of India’s most strategic regions. The leadership under Min Aung Hlaing, head of Myanmar’s military, since has given no sign that it will ease its grip on power, despite earning international opprobrium. Under the military’s extension of emergency, a return to any form of democracy — even the hybrid variety seen during the uneasy sharing of power between Aung San Suu Kyi and the junta — is unlikely before 2023. In the meantime, the military has brutally crushed popular protests, even as Myanmar was ravaged by Covid-19 and the people grappled with soaring inflation and rising food prices. Western threats of sanctions have not moved the junta and the attempt by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to mediate has run aground .

India, which backs the Asean initiative while calling for a restoration of democracy, has watched with frustration as developments in Myanmar impact the security situation in its northeastern states. Foreign secretary Harsh Shringla raised the fallout on the Northeast with Myanmar’s leadership during a visit in December. As India retains its pragmatic attitude in view of national security interests, it may be time to forge a fresh approach along with key regional players to nudge the junta towards democracy.