A road map to end the fossil fuel age
The science is clear. Global warming needs to be restricted to 1.5 degrees Celsius for the planet to survive — a reality accepted in the Paris Agreement of 2015. But seven years on, the road map to achieve it is unclear.
The problems began early. The Paris Agreement relied on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius. The triumph of Donald Trump in the United States (US) in 2017 and his decision to withdraw from the framework were further blows.
But burgeoning extreme weather events propelled civil society demands for greater action. The United Kingdom (UK) and France passed legislation to become net-zero by 2050. In the US, the climate crisis was a major plank of Joe Biden’s campaign. When he won, the US joined the Paris Agreement and held an international climate conference. The G20 called for the world to become carbonneutral by mid-century.
The COP26, however, was a dampener, especially in its outcome. Some of it was inherent in the United Nations process of having a consensus document that ends up reflecting the maximum concession that the most reluctant government is willing to agree to. While reiterating the need to restrict warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the final resolution asked nations to increase their NDCs, but stopped short of calling for ending the use of coal. Not using fossil fuels is the only way of restricting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. But this did not find a place in the document.
The gap between the position of governments and what is needed can be seen in the recent International Energy Agency report on the road map to net-zero and limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The first major step is an immediate end to the development of new fossil fuel sources; no new oil, gas fields and coal mines. It adds that by the mid2030s, electricity systems need to stop using fossil fuels, and production of internal combustion engines should stop.
Technologies under development for critical sectors should mature by then. Green hydrogen — produced without fossil fuels — will be the key as it can substitute fossil fuels in industrial processes such as steel and cement production. Used in fuel cells, it can provide traction to move cars, trucks, trains, ships and even aeroplanes. But for this, the technology must become scalable and costs must drop.
Energy transition faces two fundamental challenges. One is geopolitical. There is the persisting difficulty in the US to get Congressional approval for substantial public funding to mitigate climate change. There is legitimate concern about what could happen if the Republicans gain control of the Congress and the White House, and their attitude towards climate change doesn’t change. Then China, though very well positioned in new green technologies, is anxious about maintaining its competitive advantage in manufacturing.
The other challenge is from the political power of the fossil fuel industry whose commercial interests and very survival require that the transition does not acquire momentum. They seem to be driving the Republican position in the US. Large fossil fuel-producing and exporting economies face the same conundrum.
But two powerful forces are gathering momentum, which are a cause for some optimism. The first is the unimaginable breakthroughs in green technologies and their success in the marketplace. Renewables now generate the cheapest electricity. As storage costs keep falling, renewables with storage are cheaper even than new coal plants. India is discovering the potential of renewables and understanding the commercial logic for course correction.
The other is the rising tide of civil society activism. The Green Party is part of the new German government, one of whose first decisions was to end the use of coal by 2030. International funding for coal is no longer available. This activism could lead to similar outcomes for oil and gas. If electric vehicles take over the global market, as seems to be happening, oil demand may well fall. If consumers demand and get green electricity, cars, and industrial products, then the end of the fossil fuel age may happen sooner than we expect.