Russia preparing to invade Ukraine: US
If Moscow does opt for a full-scale attack, the invading force could take Kiev and topple president in a matter of 48 hours: US officials
WASHINGTON/BERLIN: Russia has stepped up preparations for an all-out invasion of Ukraine but it is not clear if Moscow has decided to take such a step, US officials have said citing intelligence assessments.
Russia has assembled 110,000 troops along the border with its pro-Western neighbour but US intelligence has not determined if President Vladimir Putin has actually decided to invade, according to the officials who in recent days briefed members of Congress and European allies.
The officials warned lawmakers that the assembled Russian force on the frontier is growing at a rate that would give Putin the force he needs for a fullscale invasion - some 150,000 soldiers - by mid-February.
They said Putin wants all possible options at his disposal: from a limited campaign in the pro-Russian Donbas region of Ukraine to a full-scale invasion.
Russia denies that it is planning to invade Ukraine.
If Moscow does opt for a fullscale attack, the invading force could take the capital Kiev and topple President Volodymyr Zelensky in a matter of 48 hours, the officials said.
They estimated such an attack would leave 25,000 to 50,000 civilians dead, along with 5,000 to 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 3,000 to 10,000 Russian ones. It could also trigger a refugee flood of one to five million people, mainly into Poland.
US forces in Poland President Joe Biden has decided to send American forces to Poland to protect Nato members, as diplomats work furiously to try to persuade Russia to pull its troops back from the border with Ukraine.
The first contingent of US soldiers arrived on Saturday.
Russia has also announced what it calls joint military manoeuvres with Belarus, where it has sent several battalions to the north of Kiev and in the Brest region, not far from the border with Poland.
Naval forces assembling
A major Russian naval force is also positioned in the Black Sea, equipped with five amphibious vessels that could be used to land troops on Ukraine’s southern coast, the US officials said.
They added that another six amphibious craft were observed leaving the Barents Sea north of Russia, sailing past Britain and through the Strait of Gibraltar, apparently on their way to the Black Sea.
In other deployments, Russia has positioned fighter planes near Ukraine, as well as bombers, missile batteries and antiaircraft batteries, US officials said.
On Thursday, the United States said it had evidence that Russia was preparing a video depicting a bogus attack by Ukraine that would serve as a pretext for a real Russian assault on Ukraine.
Germany may send more troops to Lithuania
Germany is considering deploying additional troops to Lithuania, defence Minister christine Lambrecht said, as tensions remained high over Russia’s military build-up near Ukraine’s border.
In an interview with the Funke media group to be published online on Sunday and in newspapers on Monday, Lambrecht said Germany was “already making an important contribution in Lithuania” by leading a Nato battlegroup.
“As a matter of principle, additional troops are available as reinforcement, and we are in talks with Lithuania at the moment to find out what exactly would make sense in this regard,” she said.
Lambrecht again ruled out supplying Kiev with arms, after Ukraine’s embassy in Germany sent a list with specific requests to the foreign and defence ministries in Berlin.
The list included missile defence systems, tools for electronic warfare, night vision goggles, digital radios, radar stations and military ambulances equipment which, in part, is already in short supply within the German forces.