UP: Have leaders listened to the people’s concerns?
The polling in the second phase of the Uttar Pradesh (UP) assembly elections is about to begin; voting is to be held in 55 constituencies across nine districts. If we include 11 districts in the first phase, then of the 75 districts, more than 25% will have voted by February 14. The question is whether the leaders of this huge electorate have listened to the real concerns of the people who have lost a great deal in income and health. It is up to the leaders to show their empathy with them.
It can be argued that a 60.17% turnout in the first phase shows a lack of enthusiasm among the people; it is less than that seen in the last assembly election. But 75.12% of polling in the Kairana seat tells a different story. Statistics do not always convey the true picture. Voting in an election doesn’t necessarily have to do with whether voters are happy with the status quo. A closer look shows that parties seem to be relying more on caste and religion equations. Attempts have been made all around to influence the electorate on issues such as security and justice. What I experienced in a village in western UP proves this.
Talking to the youth there, I got the impression that they were dissatisfied with the lack of employment. The problem of stray cattle in their fields was another complaint. But when I asked about their voting preference, the answer was that the vote would be given only to the leader who could provide them “safety”. The word “safety” has many meanings. In that particular village, it was protection from one community, while in the next it meant just the opposite. Does it mean that as a people, we cannot resolve our problems through dialogue? Why do different communities express different needs about their security?
I found on my trips through UP that the names of people often suggest their political leaning. On my election trips to Meerut, Ghaziabad and Moradabad, I stopped at roadside dhabas. I could identify the opinion of the electorate by their name and surname. On asking for a name, it became clear that their perspective depended on their religion and caste. The country, these days, is celebrating the “Amrit-Mahotsav” (75th anniversary) of Independence, but there are troubling signs.
Another pertinent point is that inflation and employment are not major issues. People want to vote only for ‘their own’ candidate. If you look at the votes of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) from the last elections, you will find that even in bad times, they do not dip below the percentage of their core votebank. But this election is different. The Congress has been unable to handle the social equations prevalent in the 1980s. The Modi and Shah duo had read these nuances even before the 2014 elections. And in this lies the formula of their electoral success in 2014, 2017 and 2019. Now, this rainbow coalition is losing a bit of its sheen which explains why this election has become more interesting.
Amid all this, however, I did see a ray of hope in the dusty villages I traversed. I spoke to many young girls and women. They spoke without any fear. They wanted peace and prosperity for their families and neighbourhood. It is no wonder that in Bihar, more than 59% of women voted for the alliance of Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar. In Bengal, where Mamata Banerjee had a similar hold on the women voters, she won for the third time in a row. Will the women of UP also be able to decide who comes to power? If so, then political parties will have to focus on another “vote bank” — women.
The Congress led by Priyanka Gandhi has come up with the slogan- ‘I am a girl, I can fight’. She fulfilled her promise of giving 40% tickets to women, but it would be unrealistic to expect immediate results from this. To win an election requires a resourceful organisation, clever and engaging slogans, and a real connection with the grassroots. At the moment the Congress party does not have any of these. If Priyanka Gandhi Vadra sticks to this narrative, perhaps she will do well in the 2024 elections.
This election is going to answer another question. Do alliances formed just before elections really work? Drawing inferences from the previous alliances with the Congress and BSP, this time the SP has entered into agreements with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), the Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party, one faction of the Apna Dal and the Mahan Dal. It has also cleverly fielded some of its own candidates on the RLD symbol in western UP. This is probably a shield against poaching during the post-election scenario, possibly from the Delhi durbar.
Today, February 14 is the day of the second phase of polling. Will the voter, this time, consider issues that they seem to have forgotten? This election gives them an opportunity to consider what really matters in their daily lives.