Challenges for a federal front
Regional forces are trying to come together ahead of 2024 polls but face formidable odds
The eternal mirage (and also the Holy Grail) in Indian politics is the idea of a front of regional parties successfully coming together for a national election. First mooted in the 1960s in the face of a dominant Congress, the idea incubated for decades before gaining momentum in the political tumult of the late 80s and early 90s, as regional parties gained strength, the Congress declined and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) rose. But since 2014, regional parties have lost ground.
The latest attempt at cobbling together a “federal front” started this week as Telangana chief minister (CM) K Chandrashekar Rao (KCR) announced he will meet Maharashtra CM, Uddhav Thackeray, and discuss forging an alternative. He has spoken to the CMs of Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, MK Stalin and Mamata Banerjee, respectively, as well as Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Tejashwi Yadav and Janata Dal (Secular) president HD Deve Gowda — who became the 11th prime minister (PM) on the back of a national coalition. Mr Thackeray also indicated he will call regional leaders for a meeting and Mr Stalin has announced a conclave of Opposition leaders.
The motivation is understandable. With the Congress in the doldrums, the national Opposition space appears wide open. State parties have had greater success in beating back the BJP and have learnt that the more localised an election becomes, the more vulnerable the national hegemon party is to regional vagaries. The BJP’s expansion into new frontiers has also taught regional leaders that they need to be proactive to protect their turfs. KCR’s forays come as the BJP emerges as the principal Opposition party in Telangana. And Stalin’s as the BJP pushes to establish a beachhead in Tamil Nadu.
But the challenges are formidable. With general elections becoming more presidential, it will be tough for regional parties to do well against the BJP’s strategy of making the Lok Sabha polls a referendum on PM Narendra Modi, the most popular national leader. No regional formation has gained power in Delhi without the backing of a national party, and voters are becoming adept at making distinct national and state choices. Before the 2019 election, then Andhra Pradesh CM Chandrababu Naidu generated a buzz by trying to forge a similar front, but ended up being routed in his own state. Then, there’s the old problem of personality clashes, rivalling ambitions, and contradictory regional priorities, which means that most attempts remain stillborn. KCR and others have a tall task at hand.