Moscow must step back

Russia’s actions in Europe have been destabilising. Stick to diplomacy

In moments of victory, never forget the vanquished. Soon after the Cold War ended, flush with confidence in what came to be known as the unipolar moment, the United States (US) pushed the boundaries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to Eastern Europe. Russia was peeved, for it did not want an alliance that was conceived as a formation targeted at the Soviet Union coming so close home. Moscow objected, but neither Washington nor Brussels listened. For a generation of men who now rule Russia — led by Vladimir Putin — the defeat in the Cold War was a traumatic experience; seeing NATO come so close triggered fears; the fact that nationalism and restoring Russian pride was central to their domestic political project only made this more difficult to internalise; and the fact that there aren’t democratic checks and balances within Russia led it to go on the offensive, driven by the calculations of a single leader.

But notwithstanding the merit of its historical grievances, or the ambitions of its leader, Russia’s recent actions have been destabilising in nature and its unilateralism is disturbing the global order. With heavy military mobilisation all along Ukraine’s borders, including in Belarus, Russia first sent a signal of its aggressive intent. In diplomatic talks with the US, there is enough meeting ground for progress on addressing each other’s concerns regarding risk-reduction, arms control, and placement of arms and forces. But Russia wants a guarantee that Ukraine won’t join NATO; the West is willing to provide informal assurances that Ukraine’s entry into NATO is not on the agenda, but isn’t willing to shut NATO’s doors to future expansion in principle. Russia wants the implementation of the Minsk agreements on terms that would erode further Ukrainian autonomy; Kyiv isn’t willing to concede.

The outcome is the most worrying crisis in Europe since the end of the Cold War. Mr Putin, emboldened by a strengthened bond with China, appears to believe that his case is legitimate, the West is weak, and this may be the time for rewriting the terms on which Cold War ended. The US has deployed a novel strategy — it has been pre-emptively releasing intelligence to warn the world of Russia’s actions in real-time, it has strengthened its Western coalition, and it has warned of severe sanctions if Russia does go ahead with an invasion. India, which shares close ties with both Washington and Moscow, doesn’t want to choose. But any conflict and instability will be bad not just for Ukraine but the rest of the world, including India. With US-Russia talks scheduled for this week, diplomacy must be given another chance.