BJP fails to breach the Tamil frontier, for now

The growth of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the clear national hegemon, and perhaps the equivalent of the Congress of the late 1950s, means that it is instructive to watch local elections. This is a party that plays the long game — as evident in its growth in West Bengal, its blooming in Telangana, and its continued (if still unfruitful) efforts in Kerala. The attention the Tamil Nadu local body polls attracted was largely on account of this — would the BJP, which was going it alone, be able to establish a beachhead?

The straight answer to this question, after the results (which were never in any doubt even before the polls; the DMK and its allies were expected to sweep it, and so they did), is no — at least not on the basis of this outcome. Sure, the local leaders of the BJP may want to point to one candidate winning in Chennai (out of 200) and a smattering of victories elsewhere to claim that this is the beginning — but that is, based on the evidence on hand, overstating the case.

The real story of this election is not the DMK’s win, but the AIADMK’s poor showing — and it is clear that the BJP, its ally in assembly and national elections, has eaten into its share. That shouldn’t surprise anyone. The state’s small, but very vocal Brahmin population, traditionally supported the AIADMK, and it is clear that a significant portion of it has now moved to the BJP. Unfortunately, as evident in the numbers — 22 of 1,374 corporation seats; 56 of 3,843 municipality seats; and 230 of 7,621 town panchayat seats, which puts the BJP fourth after the Congress (and fifth after the CPI-M in corporation seats) among parties (independents have been excluded) — this is not the new dawn the BJP claimed before the results, and continues to do so after. But it will be interesting to see whether future elections in the state show it gaining more at the AIADMK’s expense.