Moody’s raises India’s growth forecast to 9.5%
NEW DELHI: Moody’s Investors Service on Thursday raised India’s growth forecast to 9.5% for the calendar year 2022 and to 8.4% for the coming fiscal beginning April 1, even as it flagged high oil prices and supply distortions as a drag on growth.
Stating that the economic recovery from the first and second Covid wave in 2020 and 2021, respectively has been stronger than expected, Moody’s said Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection, retail activity and Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) suggest ‘solid momentum’. “We have raised our 2022 growth forecast for India to 9.5% from 7%, and maintained our forecast for 5.5% growth in 2023. This translates into 8.4% and 6.5% in fiscal years 2022-23 and 2023-24, respectively,” Moody’s said in an update to its Global macroeconomic outlook 2022-23.
The speed of the recovery from the first lockdown-led contraction in the June quarter of 2020 and subsequently in the June quarter of 2021 during the Delta wave was stronger than expected.
In November 2021, Moody’s had forecast India’s economy to expand 7.9% in the 2022-23 fiscal beginning April 1. As per official estimates, Indian economy is estimated to grow at 9.2% in the current fiscal ending March 31.
Moody’s said, “... the economy is estimated to have surpassed the pre-Covid level of GDP by over 5% in the last quarter of 2021. Sales tax collection, retail activity and PMIs suggest solid momentum. However, high oil prices and supply distortions remain a drag on growth,” it said.
Moody’s said as is the case in many other countries, the recovery is lagging in contact-intensive services sectors, but it should pick up as the Omicron wave subsides.
With most remaining restrictions now being lifted with the improvement in the Covid situation, including the reopening of schools and colleges for in-person instruction across various states, the country is on its way to normalcy.
“Our 9.5% growth forecast for 2022 assumes relatively restrained sequential growth rates; thus, there is upside potential to the growth rate. We estimate the carry-over from a strong finish to 2021 will add 6-7% to this year’s annual growth,” it said.
In 2021 calendar year, Moody’s estimates India’s economic expansion at 8.1%, against a 7.1% contraction in 2020- the year marred by Covid-induced lockdown.
Moody’s said the 2022 union budget prioritises growth, with a 36% increase in allocation to capital expenditure to 2.9% of GDP for the fiscal year 2022-23, which the government hopes will crowd in private investment. With the RBI leaving interest rates unchanged at its February meeting, monetary policy remains supportive.