Ukraine invasion: The ramifications of war on Europe and Global South
Europe is facing its most dangerous crisis in decades by way of the Russian aggression on Ukraine. This situation escalated after Russia recognised the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. This Russian minority-dominated region has wanted to secede and has been embroiled in a civil war since 2014, when Russia entered Crimea and unofficially annexed it.
President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine follows longstanding demands that Russia should get clear security guarantees from an expanding North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). All talks so far between Russia, Ukraine and the
West, from the Minsk 2014 and 2015 Protocols, the Normandy and Paris Process and recent direct talks failed because NATO firmly refused to concede to Russian security concerns. For Putin, this was humiliation by NATO. Putin’s actions are autocratic and populist in Russia, and so, he has moved to establish a Russian power role in Eurasia. United States (US) President Joe Biden’s position, which is followed by NATO, is drastically different.
They believe that one, Russia was, is and will always be the major threat to the West. The US and Europeans will continue to arm and weaponise their allies in Europe and elsewhere for the containment and isolation of Russia (and China). Second, the US will set the agenda and lead security in Europe. So European powers like France or Germany should not seek autonomous stances. The US needs NATO to maintain its hegemony and impose unilateralism internationally. Its narrative is strong even though many question its double standards. For the great powers, multilateralism is good as long as they get their way.
Third, the US will not send its forces into Ukraine, but fortify NATO forces or bases on its flanks. The US prefers regional wars in Europe such as Serbia, Bosnia, or interventionist wars in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Afghanistan. The reason is this restricts an all-out war and American body bags, the US can fire from the air and from others’ shoulders, refugees can enter Europe and Asia while the US stays safe, and the profitable military-industrial complex and the dominant dollar thrive.
But many in the world are now asking questions: If 14,000 people in this region of Ukraine have been killed between 2014 to now, what were the NATO allies doing so far? Was there any independent commission that could report on the truth of what was happening? There are no answers yet.
The West has imposed the strictest unilateral sanctions on Russia, Russian businesses, defence and energy exports. But Russia has been preparing for these sanctions since 2014. It has low debt, high foreign currency reserves, developed its own equivalent of the SWIFT global banking system for financial transactions with China and others, and has a huge gold reserve. Sanctions will impact Russia adversely, but Russians are resilient.
Russia aims to demolish the Ukrainian military and other infrastructure as a “lesson” to Ukrainian nationalists. If the current talks between Russia and Ukraine fail, it is very likely that Ukraine will become a Europe-dependent failed State with economic crises, migrants, and a brain drain. And, it will be forced to rebuild its economy with World Bank loans. President Volodymyr Zelensky will likely be thrown out. Europe will remain dependent on US security and turn more Right-wing with problems of refugees from NATO wars. The US will continue its search for hegemony, but the Chinese will come out stronger with Russia becoming more dependent on its strategic partnership.
The prices of oil and hydrocarbons will skyrocket and international supply chains will suffer. This will impact the Global South and Europeans. The US is seeking to export its own fracked oil and it will gain new markets for this product.
Most of the Global South is tired of the great powers and their muscle-flexing. They are arguing for a return to diplomacy and are in favour of mechanisms that will ensure security for all sides. And ultimately, as the wars go on, it is the ordinary people who will suffer due to inequalities, economic deprivations and lack of social justice.