A plan for India’s Energy Vision 2047
India’s primary energy demand will more than double by 2047. Fulfilling it will need telescopic vision, attention to challenges, and a spider web to weave together technologies, finance and institutions
When energy transition and climate action become pillars of the Budget speech, it sends a signal of the intent to drive growth and employment through sunrise sectors focused on sustainability. But how can we contribute to a better energy future?
Consider the energy journey from 2022 to 2047. India’s primary energy demand will more than double. Energy will be central to overall human development. Could a coal miner’s child born in India’s 75th year of Independence become a billionaire clean energy entrepreneur when we celebrate our centenary? For such opportunities to arise, India must move from energy deprivation to sustained energy access, from rural to urban energy services, from dirty to clean energy, and from energy dependence to energy influence and resilience in global markets. In short, we must have universally accessible, adequate, reliable, affordable, and secure energy that can drive inclusive development.
A citizen-centric energy future will need a shift in thinking, from a primarily supply-side focus on building infrastructure to creating the political demand for an Energy Vision 2047. Such a political demand will come from transitions along six pathways.
First, jobs. There will be no sustained political momentum behind the energy transition if the jobs benefits are not forefront. As the energy mix shifts increasingly to clean energy, a just transition out of coal mining and thermal power must be the near-term priority. However, over the next few decades, there will be far more jobs in clean energy, in absolute terms and per unit of energy. The latest research from Council on Energy, Environment and Water, Natural Resources Defense Council and the Skill Council for Green Jobs shows that India already has 111,400 workers in solar and wind. This workforce would rise to one million if India built 238 GW of solar and 101 GW of wind power by 2030. Other sources of new job creation will include electric mobility, sustainable cooling, and green hydrogen, among others. These new jobs could drive a new political economy of energy.
The second pathway will be bridging energy and finance. When private investment is cautious, public investment can temporarily fill the gap. Eventually, trillions of dollars of investment will be needed from domestic and international private sources. The here and now issue of the financial health of power distribution companies clouds investor sentiment. Therefore, simultaneously financial de-risking is needed for proven clean energy technologies. Blended public-private finance will be needed for research and development investments in horizon technologies, such as green hydrogen and carbon capture utilisation and storage.
Third, energy futures are likely to be more decentralised, digitalised, and decarbonised. Eighty per cent of the renewables workers in 2030 could be from rooftop solar. How can regulation support decentralisation of the energy system, including of supply chains to manufacture new energy products and deliver innovative energy services? As it has done with fintech, India will need to find a new convergence of digital tech and energy tech. By driving this convergence at the consumer end, India can also accelerate decarbonisation. Instead of only building huge clean energy assets, technology and market signals can change demand patterns favouring super-efficient appliances, sustainable urban mobility, and cleaner industrial fuels.
A fourth pathway will be institutional. Long-term energy transition will need near-term sectoral targets, whether in terms of capacity or energy use. But for policy certainty, there must be legislative backing to ensure that the energy system delivers better and cleaner services. India should consider an Energy (Resilience and Decarbonisation) Act to guide, monitor and review actions and revise targets across electricity, industrial and transport fuels.
Energy geopolitics will also change. From current worries about rising oil prices due to supply constraints, attention will shift to new energy sources and growing centres of demand. Internationally, India’s priority should be to participate in framing new rules of energy security for critical industrial fuels like green hydrogen. Domestically, we must kickstart a circular economy of critical minerals and materials, which can service the emergent clean energy and sustainable mobility sectors.
Finally, resilience for the energy system and participants. Today, technology risks and the resilience of renewable energy-based systems might be a preoccupation. Equally, there must be resilience against financial risks, both stranded fossil fuel infrastructure and payment risks for clean energy developers. Increasing digitisation needs resilience against cybersecurity risks. Eventually, resilience against climate risks for the end-user must become a lynchpin for India’s energy security.
In The Lion Tracker’s Guide to Life, one character says, “I don’t know where we are going but I know exactly how to get there!” From 75 to 100, India’s energy journey needs us to be bold, but not foolhardy. Fulfilling India’s energy vision for 2047 will need telescopic vision, microscopic attention to sectoral challenges, and a spider web to weave together technologies, finance, institutions with consumers at the centre. Policymakers retire; governments change. By knowing “how to get there”, energy stakeholders must pass the baton onwards from one milestone to another. A vision without a plan will remain just a dream.