China’s ‘Covid-zero’ policy is unscientific

China is increasingly under threat of being overwhelmed by a surge in infections caused by the BA.2 strain of the Omicron variant of the Sars-CoV-2 virus that causes Covid-19. The surge, which once again brings into question the nation’s controversial Covid-zero approach to managing the pandemic has already resulted in significant restrictions across provinces, with more in the offing, and will likely be followed by the sort of information blockade the country put in place when the disease first emerged in Wuhan.

There is reason for Beijing to lose sleep: The country has a significant number of old people (264 million are over the age of 60), and many of them (52 million, according to Nature magazine) have not been vaccinated. The proportion of those above 80 who have been fully vaccinated and received a booster, according to the magazine, is around 20%. Some experts believe that China could well see a surge in infections that is as brutal as the one Hong Kong did — and for similar reasons, an infectious variant, a low-level of vaccination among the elderly, and a Covid-zero approach, which involves suppressing infections, even through draconian measures. An additional worry for China is the relatively low efficacy of the primary vaccine used in the country, Sinovac (just over the World Health Organization’s mandated 50%, according to a large field trial in Brazil).

India has played it smart by not following the Covid-zero approach; its strategy has been focused on living with the pandemic, an approach that has scientific basis. But the surge in China does highlight the need for India to continue with mask mandates; screen samples for new variants of the virus; and administer booster doses to the entire adult population. That will help us live with the virus, stamping which out isn’t just impractical, but also downright impossible.