A normal monsoon is crucial this year

Last week, India heaved a sigh of relief when the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted a normal monsoon. The rainfall is likely to be “normal” at 99% of the long period average (LPA) with an error margin of +/-5%, and if all goes well, will be the fourth consecutive monsoon that has been “normal” or “above normal”. The last time India had such good fortune was between 2005 and 2008. However, IMD’s forecast of 868.6 mm is based on 1971-2020 data and replaces the earlier normal of 880.6 mm based on 1961-2010 data. This means that while the rainfall would be “normal”, India may well get less rain than it used to a decade ago. IMD termed this decrease part of a natural “multi-decadal epochal variability” of dry and wet epochs of rainfall.

A good monsoon ensures sufficient yield in agriculture (40% of India’s net-sown area does not have access to irrigation), and half of all Indians depend on farm-derived income; it replenishes 100 large reservoirs critical for drinking water, irrigation and power generation; and it keeps the pressure on overall retail inflation low. This year, a normal monsoon is crucial also because global food prices have hit record highs due to food shortages amid the Ukraine conflict.

While agriculturists know how to make the best use of the monsoon, it is high time for others to harvest the rains. Last year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the Jal Shakti Abhiyan and urged the nation to take up water conservation. But citizens often take the monsoon for granted. This is imprudent for a country facing a terrible water crisis and the climate crisis, which could make the monsoons erratic, and also volatile.