Abortion focus shakes midterm election landscape
WASHINGTON: The leaked draft of a Supreme Court abortion opinion that would overturn the landmark Roe v Wade decision is shaking the US political landscape in what has been expected to be a difficult election year for Democrats.
While the Democrats decried the draft, they suddenly have a clear, unifying message. The real possibility that abortion could be outlawed in dozens of states in the coming months could animate their dejected base - especially young voters, people of colour and suburban women, who are unhappy with the pace of progress under Democratic leadership in Washington.
Republicans, meanwhile, are struggling to contain their excitement at the prospect of winning a decades-long fight, even as they suggest Democrats are exaggerating the likely realworld impact of a Roe reversal.
The draft opinion surfaced just as the most competitive phase of the primary season was beginning, with races unfolding on Tuesday in Ohio and Indiana.
While the political fallout will take months to settle, this much is clear: Rarely in the modern era has a Supreme Court case had the potential to so dramatically reshape American life and politics.
“I hope that women across this country are going to rise up and realise this isn’t theoretical anymore,” warned Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow.
Republicans have been fighting to ban abortion since before the Supreme Court’s 1973 Roe ruling, but on Tuesday many offered only modest estimates of the political impact of a decision eliminating the legal guarantee of the right.
The draft ruling would become the law of the land only after a formal announcement, which is expected in late June or early July. And privately, GOP strategists have worried that overturning Roe ahead of the election could trigger an anti-Republican backlash.
South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham acknowledged that a sweeping change in the nation’s abortion laws might help Democrats in November, but he suggested the election would depend more on the state of the economy than the explosive social issue. “I think it will be a new issue, particularly at the state level, but I think most people, quite honestly are not singleissue voters,” Graham said.
Voters in some states would be affected more than others.
Twenty-two states in all, largely across the South, West and Midwest, already have total or near-total bans on their books - almost all now blocked in court because of Roe. They include deep-red states with elections this fall including Idaho, Missouri, North Dakota and Utah. But they also include high-profile swing states including Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin.
A White House adviser said a
Roe reversal would serve as a galvanising force for key segments of President Joe Biden’s coalition, giving Democrats a clear message to link to the midterm elections. At the same time, the adviser, who requested anonymity to discuss internal strategies, acknowledged that an abortion change might not be enough on its own to overcome political headwinds come November.
Biden’s popularity remains weak amid increasing concerns about inflation and the direction of the country. History also suggests that the party that controls the White House almost always suffers losses in the first congressional elections of a new presidency.
ABORTION RIGHTS ISSUE COULD RESHAPE THE BATTLE BETWEEN DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS FOR CONTROL OF CONGRESS