2017: LONG ROAD

A NEW SECURITY ESTABLISHMENT AT THE HELM

The new Pakistan Army chief, Gen Qamar Bajwa, is an old Kashmir hand and one of the reasons he was chosen is that the military wants to shift focus from counterinsurgency operations to India. The new ISI chief, Lt Gen Naveed Mukhtar, once wrote in a paper about Pakistan adopting “aggressive measures” to counter India’s role in Afghanistan. The two generals could turn up the pressure on India.

A WILLING MEDIATOR

The wild card in the pack is US president-elect Donald Trump, who has said he would be happy to mediate on the Kashmir issue if he was asked by India and Pakistan. Vice president-elect Mike Pence has spoken of Trump using his “deal-making skills” to resolve issues such as Kashmir. While Pakistan will welcome such a role, India would never agree to it.

CAUGHT IN A POLITICAL BIND

India and Pakistan could make one last ditch effort to hold talks but this, analysts say, appears unlikely given the domestic political compulsions of the two governments. Pakistan’s efforts to internationalise the Kashmir issue and wrangling over the Indus Waters Treaty has further complicated the picture.

STRIKES, COUNTER-STRIKES WILL STRAIN RELATIONS

Heightened tensions between the two sides persist, especially along the Line of Control (LoC), where a 13-year-old ceasefire is already under severe strain. There could be further exchanges of fire and skirmishes, which would add to the concerns of the world community. Pakistan, which has made no moves to counter anti-India terror groups such as JeM and LeT, could continue to aid infiltration efforts by terrorists and this could trigger further surgical strikes by India.