Population: Shed imaginary fears

Don’t let erroneous assumptions and a communal subtext drive State policy

The Uttar Pradesh (UP) State Law Commission is working on a draft law, which will seek to limit the benefits of state government schemes only to those with two children or less. Last week, Assam’s chief minister, Himanta Biswa Sarma, said that his government would implement a similar policy. Mr Sarma made a reference to minorities (read Muslims) while making this statement. And in 2016, 2019 and 2020, three separate bills by Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Members of Parliament were introduced in Parliament, demanding the linking of welfare benefits to a two-child policy. To be sure, a 2020 affidavit by the central government has opposed the idea of forcing people to have only a certain number of children. Whether the recent posturing by BJP state governments materialises into a law remains to be seen. Any such law will also have to pass judicial scrutiny.

But the idea itself, of enforcing a two-child norm, is deeply flawed and based on erroneous assumptions. As a data-based analysis published in this newspaper on Wednesday showed, India’s population growth peaked a long time ago and it has been on a declining trajectory. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has also been coming down significantly; from 3.4 in 1992-93 to 2.2 in 2015-16, as per data from the National Family and Health Survey. The declining trend in TFR holds for both Hindus and Muslims. While it is true that TFR is higher among Muslims, and this trend holds even after controlling for important drivers such as household wealth and education, the Hindu-Muslim differential in TFR has also been falling over time. In short, any paranoia over an overall or Muslimspecific population explosion, which appears to be the political subtext driving recent moves, is not based on facts.

Any law which discriminates against families with more than two children will disproportionately penalise the poor and less-educated. This will be regressive, as these are the sections that need State support the most. In case politicians pushing for such laws have any illusions about political gains, they should know that 83% of the families having more than two children are Hindus. India will do well to focus on other demographic challenges, such as providing the best possible education and training to our young population. The Government of India’s own projections show that more than half of the population is younger than 30. Whether or not we train them well is what will shape the country’s future, not imaginary fears.