MODI AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
DENMARK THE FRIEND
The Danish-Danis ambassador is said to be among the few envoys who meets Modi when he wishes. The Danes were the only Europeans who didn’t impose a visa ban against Modi. Why? The Congress put the Danes in the doghouse for not extraditing Kim Davy, the Purulia arms drop accused. But an unfazed Modi continued to do business with them. Years later they returned the favour.
CHANGE. Congress never accepted Copenhagen’s argument that it could not control their judiciary.
UNITED STATES TTHE FRENEMY
The US analyst Ashley Tellis wrote that Modi-US relations will be “joyless but productive.” Modi may be more magnanimous but his circle believes relations with the US should be restricted to economics and defence “until Barack Obama leaves office.” One of them spoke of a “New Delhi to New York” relationship, Wall Street rather than Washington.
CHANGE. No one was more committed to Indo-US relations than Manmohan Singh. While the personal chemistry was good, Obama concluded that engaging with Singh was useless after the Indian PM passed the disastrous nuclear liability law
PAKISTAN THE THREAT
Modi’s economic first viewpoint means he embraces normalizing trade relations with everyone, Pakistan included. But he has little interest in the soaring peace initiatives that moved Atal Bihari Vajpayee or Manmohan Singh. He wants trade, no terrorism and not much else with India’s troublesome neighbour.
CHANGE. Singh desperately wanted to visit Pakistan. Opposition, most notably from his own party, kept him home. Modi has no such burning desire. He will not spend political capital on Pakistan. But no one knows if he has any idea about what to do about cross-border terror.
ISRAELIS THE ARSENAL
Even by BJP standards, Modi’s circle is Israelophiles. Numerous sources say this will be Modi government’s counterterrorism, cybersecurity and defence partner of choice. Israel even scores points with the Gujarati brigade on agriculture and hi-tech.
NO CHANGE. One of the last acts of the Congress regime was to sign a sweeping homeland security agreement with Israel.
CHINA THE INVESTOR
Beijing quietlyqu hopes for a Modi victory because it believes only a very confident Indian government can open the doors to Chinese investment. China has offered to spend hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure investments. Modi is receptive. Delhi’s security establishment will beg to differ.
CHANGE. The Congress, bruised by six years of unpredictable Chinese actions over disputed terriroty, became hostile to Beijing. Modi thinks the Middle Kingdom can be bribed with trade, others doubt this.
SINGAPORES TTHE GUIDE
Modi doesn’t have too many contacts with world leaders. One exception is the Singapore prime minister, Goh Chok Tong. Goh has been the closest thing Modi has to an international mentor. His message: if you don’t get the economics right, the strategic side won’t work either.
NO CHANGE. Singapore has been whispering “look east” into India’s ear since P.V. Narasimha Rao’s time.
JAPAN J THE FACTORY
HHarriedi d bby China and in need of an Asian counterweight, Tokyo has been wooing India. It is offering to fill in a missing hole in the Indian economy: a competitive manufacturing sector. And they are prepared to build the infrastructure for their factories. Some 40% of the flagship project, the DelhiMumbai Industrial Corridor, runs through Gujarat. Does Modi get the military side of what could be India’s most important 21st century relationship?
NO CHANGE. The only other Indian leader close to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is Manmohan Singh.