The climate will decide how we all get along
Climate change will intensify social conflicts. Countries must focus on adaptation and create a global clean energy community
In December, France will be hosting the 21st UN climate conference, COP21. The aim is to reach a universal agreement that will limit temperature rise by the end of the century to 2°C compared to the pre-industrial period. As the president of COP21, my role will be to facilitate a compromise among 195 states — 196 parties with the European Union. In negotiations, differences in the situation of countries that are at distinct stages of development create differences of approach. Yet, strong common interests unite us: One example is the impact of climate change on our shared security.
Climate has always posed threats to security. In public debate the emphasis has been on environmental impact, but climate disruption upsets economic and social equilibriums and threatens internal security of countries.
Beyond borders, climate change can stoke the risk of international conflict over the control of vital and scarce resources — particularly water. Another source of insecurity is the displacement of populations. By making certain areas uninhabitable, droughts and rising water levels uproot entire populations that often refuge in overpopulated regions, exacer- bating tensions between countries. When uprooted, such populations can fall prey to radical movements. A ‘climate-disrupted’ planet would be a fundamentally unstable one. Threats to peace and security will increase and intensity if the rise in temperature exceeds 2°C.
Increased desertification of unstable areas would foster the growth of criminal networks and terrorist groups. Similarly, climate disruption would exacerbate threats that are concentrated in regions from Niger to the Persian Gulf, which will be among the most affected. For this “arc of crisis” is also an “arc of drought”.
These facts lead us to two conclusions. First, it is essential to limit global warming to below 2°C. Second, we need to reduce the exposure of populations to the damage caused by climate disruption — in particular by protecting coastlines from rising water levels and organising more effective management of water in arid regions. In the language of international negotiations, this is called ‘adaptation’. Adaptation must be a central focus of the agreement to be reached at the end of 2015.
I would like to emphasise another essential point: The massive use of fossil fuels has accelerated conflicts ever since they have been central to our economies. Because fossil fuel deposits are unevenly distributed, leading to dependency and often violent competition, which threaten international security.
I would like to draw another conclusion: We need a global clean energy community to free us from dependence on fossil fuels and the related risks of conflict. Reducing carbon intensity improves security as it equalises access to energy. A country that develops its own solar or wind energy production takes nothing from anyone: The light and wind that it uses are renewable and belong to everyone. We should not underestimate the contribution this could make to international peace and security.