Winners take it all in the East

Mamata vanquishes the Left again while the BJP makes a decisive push East

C on founding conventional wisdom has been a defining feature of Mamata Banerjee’s political career. Through persistence, bravery and picking the right causes she trounced the CPI(M) in 2011. She did not seem like a runaway winner this time though, failing to exude the optimism we’ve come to expect from her. Trinamool Congress (TMC) cadres were apprehensive, leading analysts to speculate about the possibilities of the Congress-Left alliance owing to the alienation caused by TMC cadres’ strong arm-tactics. In the end, she withstood withering criticism from the liberal intelligentsia and corruption allegations against her party leaders and secured a second resounding affirmation.

Ms Banerjee’s victory has far-reaching implications. With this she may have snuffed out whatever chances the CPI(M) had of forging a comeback in Bengal. That the Congress has done better than the CPI(M) is an astonishing tale of decline for the latter and portends a further churning of political loyalties across the state — a process that may be marked by violence while providing opportunities for the BJP to expand. How Ms Banerjee and the NDA navigate their relationship hereon will have a bearing on Bengal’s future and India’s.

The BJP’s historic victory in Assam is a significant boost for the party after last year’s setbacks and signals that it is no longer a purely Hindi-heartland party, but is in fact ready to make a further push into the East. It also represents a strong comeback for party president Amit Shah, who deftly handled the dynamics within the BJP’s Assam unit and choreographed the alliance with the Asom Gana Parishad and the Bodoland People’s Front. Managing two regional heavyweights is no easy task, particularly if they are recent entrants from opposing parties, but the BJP managed to project Sarbananda Sonowal, formerly of the AGP, as the chief minister while drafting in a former Congressman, Himanta Biswa Sarma, as the election convener. The Congress, meanwhile, paid the price for poor performance on the economy and infrastructure development despite being in power for three terms. Its electoral handling was counterproductive; it failed to explore alliances while efforts to project Tarun Gogoi’s son, Gaurav, ended up alienating Sarma, who was a huge asset to the party. The ambitions of Badruddin Ajmal, the head of the All India United Democratic Front, also foundered at the hustings. He was hoping to be kingmaker in the event of a hung verdict. Mr Ajmal himself lost the poll, suggesting that the migrant and indigenous Muslim support base he was banking on voted with more discernment than he anticipated.