KEY TAKEAWAYS

To the extent that disenchantment with the BJP is driven by local factors, it should do little to diminish the aura of Prime Minister Narendra Modi

But if these losses are connected to a larger national narrative, then the BJP has reason to worry The BJP’s strike rate, the percentage of seats it wins among those it is contesting, across both urban and rural constituencies in these three states has fallen between 2013 and 2018 Clearly, the BJP’s losses point to a much larger narrative than rural disenchantment.

At the same time, it is important to note that rural areas are not synonymous with farmers. Much of rural India commutes to cities or works in some other form of labour

More worryingly for the BJP, its erosion of support seems to have spread to urban areas as well

This shows that disenchantment with the BJP cuts across demographic groups If the BJP is to return to power in 2019, it will have to find a way to win back the Hindi belt