The Congress’s rebound from 2013 is impressive
Rahul Gandhi can add some more sheen to his party’s success by assuming stewardship of post-poll initiatives
There’s a message for the Congress in the electoral outcome in the three Hindi heartland states: take smaller, ideologically proximate parties along on turfs where the fight is straight with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Or else a smooth ride to power could become arduous, even accident-prone.
The Congress’s impressive rebound, if not outright victories, came exactly a year after Rahul Gandhi took the party’s reins from his mother, Sonia Gandhi. It devolves upon him now to ensure the party doesn’t play high and mighty the way the BJP did in the wake of its resounding 2014 win followed by a string of successes in states.
The Congress’s solo victories in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan must facilitate rather than come in the way of co-opting the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in government formation. The same principle should apply to the Samajwadi Party (SP) in legislatures where it has a presence.
The art of sharing power with like minded parties was perfected by the CPI-Min West Bengal. It never abandoned its left front allies despite notching up majorities of its own.
In the instant context, early partnerships with the BSP-SP will generate the goodwill the Congress so direly needs to build a front that will be a formidable challenger to the BJP’s hegemony in Uttar Pradesh. Having won 71 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats last time, the saffron party has a lot to lose and little to gain in the bellwether state where it’s hard put to revive the Ram Temple movement.
Rahul Gandhi would add extra sheen to his party’s electoral success, for which he can legitimately take credit, by assuming stewardship of post-poll initiatives. Towards that, he should not also abandon the alliance with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) despite the setback in Telangana.
To have Chandrababu Naidu by his side could be as valuable for Rahul as it was for Narendra Modi in the run-up to the 2014 polls. The Andhra chief minister’s support for the BJP’s PM-face helped him overcome the image crisis that was his bane since the 2002 Gujarat riots.
Keeping aside Chhattisgarh which resoundingly voted for a change, a postmortem of the results in Rajashtan and MP would show as to what continues to ail a resurgent Congress. Disingenuous ticket-allocation caused by factionalism which, in turn, triggered avoidable, constituency-specific rebellions.
The picture will be complete if one factors in the party’s failure to stitch up pre-poll pacts with the BSP. Its strategy to go it alone certainly worked in Chhattisgarh, but not in the other two Hindi states. A tie-up with Mayawati could have helped the Congress deny the BJP the ground it has managed to retain in the two provinces.
Objectively speaking, the saffron party has been ousted from power; it hasn’t been wiped out the way the Congress was in these states in 2013. So shattered was the latter’s morale after the disastrous show that a year later, it couldn’t fight for an honourable defeat. The result: the Congress’s lowestever tally in Parliament’s Lower House since Independence.
In contrast, the BJP has retained sizeable footprints in Rajasthan and MP that send 54 members to the Lok Sabha. Given the very tangible alienation of farmers, tillers, small traders and the unemployed youth, the party has done a commendable salvage job in the face of adversity.
With better resources and cadres, the BJP has a reasonable chance of a comeback in parliamentary elections in 2019. To forestall that eventuality, the Congress will have to quickly formulate and implement policies in tune with aspirations raised by its poll-time narrative.
There might be other unforeseeable gauntlets the BJP could throw down to do what it does the best: whip up hyper religious, nationalistic fervour to polarise popular opinion. The saffron offensives of such a nature can only be negated by a counternarrative enabled by the collective groundconnect of non-BJP parties.
On account of the fault-lines within, the Congress could have met the fate that has been its staple over the past five years. Flawed candidatures caused it maximum damage in the desert state, where a projected landslide win became a cliffhanger. The reason: a robust challenge to official nominees by renegades claiming loyalty to Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot. Rearguard action to contain damage came late and was of little help.
That the rebels queered the pitch for the party in nearly two dozen constituencies was confirmed by a top state-level leader. But in Rajasthan’s many satta markets, the count was two-fold more of triangular fights involving Independents from the Congress stock.
On account of Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s undiminished appeal, Madhya Pradesh was a state more difficult to win than Rajasthan. What helped the Congress there were the BJP’s bad candidatures — and its own competent job of candidate selection. Also, compared to previous polls, there was better coordination and mutual trust among the Kamal Nath-Jyotiraditya Scindia-Digvijay Singh triumvirate.
As the party’s new high command, Rahul’s immediate task would be to amicably settle competitive leadership claims in the three states. Any sign of early dissidence would be suicidal for the party, given its margins in Rajasthan and MP.
The Congress was ahead but not safely home in these states. Therefore, the task cut out for the new CMs is to secure a safe working majority at the earliest, marshalling support from smaller parties and Independents. As that will need resources and crossparty relationships, the Punjab model — in which experience got precedence over youthful energy — might well find an echo in MP and Rajasthan.
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS POLLS, CLEARLY THERE WAS BETTER COORDINATION AND MUTUAL TRUST IN MADHYA PRADESH AMONG THE KAMAL NATH-JYOTIRADITYA SCINDIADIGVIJAY SINGH TRIUMVIRATE