Covid-19: What you need to know today

Here’s how we should assess our progress in the fight against the spread of Covid-19.

On May 5, there were 2,991 new cases of Covid-19 in India. I’ve explained previously that this doesn’t mean all 2,991 cases were discovered in the preceding 24 hours – just that the numbers were being reported in that period. Of these, 1,942 were from three states -- Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Tamil Nadu. Without these three states, the number would have been 1,049.

On May 4, there were 3,861 new cases, but excluding Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Tamil Nadu, there were 1,391.

The corresponding number on May 3 was 1,298. On May 2, it was 1,298 again. And on May 1, it was 827.

So, the numbers, arranged in sequence (most recent first) are: 1049, 1391, 1298, 1298, and 827.

In the preceding five days, it was 822, 678, 832, 752, and 877.

I’ve done this exercise with three states, but you could, say, exclude three more (I’d pick West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, and Delhi). On May 5, the number would then be 651. On May 4, 600.

Is there a pattern to these numbers? What would happen if we were to leave out these six states since, say, April 1?

I asked Jamie Mullick, Five-day average who has been in charge of the HT Covid-19 dashboard, and he sent me two charts reproduced along with this piece (Charts 1 and 2). One was the number of new cases excluding the six states since April 1 (with a helpful five-day average May 5 line thrown in for reference and analysis). Another was a straight comparison of the number of new cases in these six states, and in the Rest of India rest of India since April 1.

Two things are clear from this.

One, these six states have driven the increase in the daily number of cases in India. Without them, the increase wouldn’t be as sharp.

May 5

But, and this is the second reading, the number of cases in the rest of India, especially as shown by the five-day average, is still rising. Five-day average It seemed to be flattening towards the end of April, but it has started climbing again, albeit gradually, in May.

It isn’t difficult to see why – Punjab and Rajasthan have seen new hot spots emerge in the past May 5 week. If we increase the scope of the analysis from six states to eight (to be excluded), then the curve appears to be flattening (Chart 3). Is that reason for cheer?

Yes, and no.

Yes, because it shows that apart from these eight states, the rest of India appears to have gotten the better of Covid-19. No, because there will always be new hot spots that emerge.

But there are two very important learnings that emerge from this iterative exercise.

The first is that containment and zoning are actually good approaches to dealing with Covid-19 given the geographical concentration of cases. This has been known since Wuhan, and how the Chinese dealt with it, but merits repetition.

The second is that, as evident from the numbers coming out of Delhi and Tamil Nadu, no state can afford to lower its guard. Indeed, the spike in cases in Chennai over the past week can be directly attributed to the folly of the administration in announcing a hard lockdown for four days between April 26 and April 29. People rushed to stock up, especially to the large vegetable market of Koyambedu in Chennai, and many of the cases that have emerged over the past week have been traced back to that market.

If, two weeks from now, Chart 1 (the number of new cases excluding the six states) shows a flattening or flattened curve, and Chart 2 (the number of new cases excluding the eight states) continues to show a downward curve, then it would be reason for cheer (and to redo the graphs with, say, only three states excluded).