Have low expectations from Trump’s new club

An American president, Bill Clinton, first broached the need for broadening the Group of Seven nations, called the G-7, in the wake of the Asian economic crisis of 1997. And that led to the launch of the G-20 in 1999, a group of 19 countries and the European Union. Twenty-four years later, another American President, Donald Trump, has called for expanding the same body, G-7, on the basis that it is “very outdated”.

The endgame is unclear, as it was then. Trump is looking at “G-10 or G-11” with India, South Korea, Australia and Russia as additional members . The math is clear; it should become the G-11. Why G-10? Russia. It was kicked out of the group in 2014 (when G-8 became G-7) for annexing Crimea and it remains in the doghouse for most G-7 heads, who don’t share Trump’s enthusiasm for Russia.

But this uncertainty alone should not cast doubts on Trump’s plans for G-7 overhaul. Negotiators had looked at competing numbers for the 1997-99 expansion as well, but had settled on the smaller number to keep it manageable. India made it to that group.

There was a clear need for a broader platform in 1997 to address challenges to global financial stability due to the widening economic crisis in Asian countries. And the G-20 provided an answer. The forum played an effective role after the 2008 crisis.

Trump’s expansion plan, on the other hand, is not well-thought-out. It does not appear to be about the coronavirus pandemic, the worst health crisis faced by the world in 100 years. If he believed in multilateralism to deal with it or prevent the next, he would have continued to fund the World Health Organization and forced to change it from within.

It’s also not about the economic crisis that has accompanied the pandemic.

All Trump cares about, at this time, is his re-election prospects. That’s why German chancellor Angela Merkel, the sharpest of politicians in the western world, who has made it a practice to not visit the United States in election years, is skipping the summit, although, to be sure, she has other reasons.

Merkel is also not willing to join any effort to gang up against China. A Trump aide has indicated the president would like the next G-7 to discuss the future of China. This comes in the backdrop of a sharp dip in the US-China ties. But with Europe not on board for this, it’s hard to see them agreeing to making the G-7 expansion all about isolating China.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has accepted Trump’s invitation to attend the meet as a guest, as he did in 2019 when he attended the G-7 summit in Biarritz at the invitation of President Emmanuel Macron. He has also welcomed Trump’s proposal to include India in an expanded G-7, the world’s most elitist club of developed economies. But India will do well to keep its hopes in check until it sees a real plan with real outcomes and a timeline.