Decoding China’s playbook
Until it converts words into deeds, India must be cautious
India and China have taken baby steps to end the military standoffs along the Ladakh border. The recent announcements, following military-level talks, mean that both countries have pulled back at the three points in or near the Galwan Valley. However, the more egregious Chinese intrusion at Pangong
ourtake Tso remains unresolved with China in possession of the disputed northern shore of the lake. As long as the status quo in Pangong Tso is not restored, it will be a case of wishful thinking rather than cool-headed calculation to believe the present crisis is entering the home stretch. It is perfectly possible that the Pangong Tso issue could go on for months, if not years.
Beijing does not believe territorial disputes are a tea party and it is important that New Delhi does not treat them as such. If anything, any premature celebration on this side of the Line of Actual Control would encourage China to conclude that possession is nine-tenths of surrender. Reducing Indian forces in the region because a few tents have been removed and soldiers walked back a kilometre or two is not advisable. It is China that would like the new alignment to be the status quo and it must not look as if India is acquiescing to the same. Negotiated settlements with India’s northern neighbour must always be backed by firepower and hard-nosed diplomacy. In the iron-gloved world of Chinese foreign policy, an agreement to end a dispute is only a reflection of the power equation at the time, and can be changed without warning if that equation shifts — especially if it moves in Beijing’s favour.
“Trust but verify” was the motto of the protracted arms control negotiations between the United States and the Soviet Union. It applies in spades, with possibly even less trust, to relations between India and China. The Cold War rivals were both status quo powers by the time they began such talks. India and China are emerging powers with rising economic and military capacities. Their sense of national interest keeps changing as their concerns and capabilities keep expanding. This has been strikingly with China which keeps adding new items to its list of “core interests” — and then expects others to adjust. New Delhi must be cautious about declaring successes, even small ones, until there is clear evidence on the ground that Beijing has converted words into deeds.