major trends
THE “CHINA VIRUS”
With Covid-19 originating in Wuhan, as the pandemic spread, US president Donald Trump took to calling Sars-Cov-2 the “China virus”. This was seen as an attempt to deflect his own failures in managing the pandemic on to an external rival; it also reflected the tensions in the US-China relationship. While there remains a widespread consensus that China needs to be called out for its initial missteps in handling the disease, the dominant international view is that it is important not to politicise the pandemic by naming it after China, for it will only deepen divisions and can lead to social tensions.
THE WHO CRISIS
The World Health Organization is in the middle of its most serious crisis since its founding in 1948. And it is just not because of the serious health emergency that has hit the world. Seen as complicit in China’s initial attempts to underplay the disease, the WHO director general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, has come under particular criticism for the delay in officially alerting the world about the existence of the pandemic, issuing conflicting advisories on health protocols, among other steps. The United States, under Donald Trump, has taken on the WHO — first cutting funding, and then announcing a decision to walk out of the body.
THE PANDEMIC IN THE US
As the pandemic spread, developed democracies in the west — particularly United States and United Kingdom, but also other nations in Europe — were badly affected. The surge in cases and deaths exposed the governance weaknesses of these states. US president Donald Trump, in particular, swung from underestimating the perils of the disease to encouraging protesters against curtailed movement and economic activity, which led to more cases. Many observers see the moment as the beginning of the end of the US dominance in international politics.
BELLIGERENT BEIJING
Even as the international community sought accountability from China for the pandemic, Beijing — after focusing on tackling the disease in the first few months of the year — decided to use the moment to both turn internally more repressive and externally more assertive. It stepped up its offensive against Taiwan, eroded Hong Kong’s autonomous status, allegedly launched a cyber offensive against Australia, attacked a Vietnamese vessel in the South China Sea, and encroached on Indian territory.
THE INDIA-CHINA CLASH
One of the most significant events in the last 100 days has been the border clash between India and China in eastern Ladakh on June 15, when 20 personnel of the Indian Army and an unconfirmed number of Chinese People’s Liberation Army personnel were killed. The clash came in the wake of China attempting to change the facts on the ground at the Line of Actual Control, breaching past agreements. The episode has the potential to alter the Asian balance of power, push India closer to the United States, and deepen IndiaChina rivalry across the board.
THE END OF GLOBALISATION?
US president Donald Trump decided to suspend work visas affecting a wide range of sectors of the US economy and foreign nationals. The move was a reflection of the acceleration in the inward turn of countries. While global movement of people was always more restrictive than the flow of goods and services, Trump’s move is in line with his general approach to global economic interlinkages. But it is not just him. Countries have turned more protectionist, encouraging local industry, and stepping back on WTO commitments, with implications for global supply chains.