Hindustan Times (Jammu)
India to have normal monsoon this yr: Skymet
Monsoon is likely to be normal or above normal for the third consecutive year, Skymet Weather, a private weather forecasting agency, said on Tuesday. In its preliminary forecast for 2021, Skymet said the rainfall from June to September is likely to 103% of the long period average (LPA) of 88cm based on average monsoon rain from 1961 to 2010. In 2020 and 2019, the monsoon was above normal at 110% and 109% of LPA respectively.
The monsoon season, which begins on June 1, is crucial for summer crops and brings about 70% of India’s annual rainfall. It is crucial to the country’s agriculture, which is one of the mainstays of its economy. Monsoon spurs farm produce and improves rural spending.
In its forecast, Skymet said the northern plains, along with few parts of the northeast region, are likely to be at risk of being rain deficient through the season. Also, interior parts of Karnataka could face scanty rains in the core monsoon months of July and August.
“The onset month of June and the withdrawal phase of September is assuring good countrywide rainfall distribution,” Skymet said in its statement.
Yogesh Patil, CEO, Skymet, said La Nina conditions have been prevailing in the Pacific Ocean since last year. “It is, however, expected to remain neutral through the monsoon season. Occurrence of El Nino, which normally corrupts the monsoon, is ruled out.”
El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It has a major influence on weather and climate patterns such as heavy rains, floods, and drought.