‘India to become global military power by 2045’
LONDON: A global scenario projected by Britain’s ministry of defence says that by 2045, India is likely to have the ability to project conventional military power globally with the third largest defence expenditure pegged at $654 billion.
Titled ‘Global Strategic Trends – Out to 2045’, the publication by the ministry’s Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre sets out what the world might look like 30 years from now. It looks at a range of variables, including energy, mineral resources, conflict and migration.
“Although China’s militaryindustrial complex is unlikely to surpass the technological sophistication of the US by 2045, it may rival it in terms of size, as could India’s,” the paper says.
However, the analysis notes that although India is likely to spend more on defence than the UK, it will “almost certainly have to overcome domestic political issues and improve the way it invests to attain the capabilities needed to project conventional military power glo- bally.”
In terms of technology, China and India are likely to attain global leadership in select technical disciplines, achieving parity with the West in a number of niche areas as soon as 2015 and more widely by 2045. In terms of conflict, it is projected that Kashmir would continue to be one of the areas of tension, including the border between China and India.
The paper is based on inputs from individuals and global institutions, including India’s Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis, United Services Institute and the Vivekananda International Foundation.