After poll jolt, sleeping with enemy is new political mantra in Bihar

PATNA: Politics in Bihar has undergone a radical change since the heavy shelling by the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections.

Although still shocked, sworn enemies RJD patriarch Lalu Prasad and JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar have joined forces to clear the immediate hurdle — placing Kumar’s men in Rajya Sabha with RJD backing since the rebels of his own party refused to play ball. Kumar announced that his deal with Prasad had been sealed. The aim is to make joint moves to turn around in the assembly elections in November 2015.

The two big boys of Bihar, who together ruled the state for the last 24 years, are justifying the move — quite haltingly, though — as necessary to fight the larger ‘evil’, the BJP (read: Modi). The strongest provocation is the way Modi capitalised on their weaknesses when they fought each other and shredded all caste groups, keeping the anti-BJP formations sharply divided and their voters confused.

Prasad did a tad better as the Congress brought in Muslims. But the JD(U), the only regional preference of minorities so far, lost its major vote-base Recognising that Muslims might not rely solely on the RJD and the upper castes had moved to BJP, the JD(U) and RJD—with Congress and Left— are desperately trying to cobble together a backward-Dalit-minority coalition.

Since the upper castes account for 15 to 17% votes in Bihar, the BJP should have no future in the state in mathematical terms. But the LS polls saw the BJP and allies mopping up 40% vote-share.

Kumar’s focus on accommodating all the caste groups is now swiftly shifting towards creating a backward-Dalit-minority combination. After his victory in RS polls, he parried questions over his new-found love for Prasad, whose ‘Jungle Raj’ he had opposed for 18 years. But CM Jitan Ram Manjhi, said, “The issue of ‘Jungle Raj’ is old hat. The regime’s only concern is to stop the BJP.” It became clearer that Kumar had lost interest in upper castes when Manjhi transferred 51 IPS officers overnight to place officers from chosen castes in critical positions.

But there are groups within both parties opposing the alliance. While 19 JD(U) rebelswho voted against the party’s RS candidates said they would back BJP, senior RJD leader Raghuvansh Prasad Singh saw “disaster ahead”.

The test could come sooner, when the new partners stand fight the NDA in 11 assembly seat bypolls. Also of interest would be the leadership issue in assembly polls. Who among Prasad and Kumar will lead the coalition and which party will fight which seats? Those issues would decide whether the coalition sinks or floats.