Deficient or normal: Forecasters battle it out this monsoon season

NEW DELHI: Sitting on a charpoy in his farm on a dry riverbed in the heart of Delhi, Ramesh Singh smiles as he looks at his field, shining green. The rains have been 16% surplus in June despite the official outlook of a “deficient” monsoon.

Government predictions going wrong barely raise eyebrows. This year, however, the forecast must spare the India meteorological department the blushes.

For the first time in its 140-year-old history, the IMD, or Met department, has serious competition.

Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd, the country’s lone private forecaster, has virtually challenged the Met’s prediction of patchy rains with that of a normal monsoon.

The IMD forecast for July, which accounts for over a third of the season’s rain, too, differs widely from Skymet’s. While the Met sees a “considerable dip” in rains, Skymet talks of a rainy July.

MET DEPARTMENT HAS PREDICTED POOR RAINS, WHILE SKYMET, INDIA’S LONE PRIVATE WEATHER FORECASTER, TALKS OF A HEALTHY MONSOON

The Met has forecast a deficient monsoon -- 88% of the average of 89 centimeters. The monsoon is considered normal if it is within 94-106% range.

Skymet’s monsoon forecasts, since it began projecting in 2012, have been largely similar to the Met’s but slightly more accurate. This has caught much attention, given that the monsoon is critical for Asia’s third-largest economy. In 2104, both failed to predict a drought.

This year, a growing El Nino, a weather pattern marked by higher sea temperatures known to choke the monsoon, is a major reason for Met’s ‘deficient’ forecast. Both Skymet and the IMD see a 90% probability of a drought due to this, but differ on the conclusions.