India plays the great game for influence over this vital region

SOJOURN Aim is to increase connectivity and business with five nations

India and central Asia are close in every way, except geography. With Pakistan and China controlling all land access to central Asia, India’s relations with the countries of this region is a shadow of other Asian powers. Indian trade with the “Five Stans” is less than $1 billion a year. China’s trade is nearly 50 times that.

New Delhi has long sought to set up an alternative route through the Iranian port of Chhabar and the building of a North-South Corridor that would run to Afghanistan and eventually also connect to Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Dif f i culties of i nter nal Iranian politics and UN sanctions on Iran have meant the corridor has moved slowly. India’s engagement with central Asia has also been held hostage.

With the sanctions likely t o be li f t ed, I ran nervous about a Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan, and Tehran reeling from the financial hit of record low oil and gas prices, a window has opened for New Delhi. It has a chance to play the Great Game — Rudyard Kipling’s name for the 18th century Anglo-Russian struggle for influence over Central Asia. A marginal player so far, now India can consider being a tier two external player, if it gets its act together.

PM Modi’s tour will position India as an alternative to the other, better-connected central Asian neighbours. India will offer tele-medicine and education. It will play up its soft power, from Buddhism to yoga. And it will remind a central Asia starting to feel the heat of resurgent Islamic terror of India’s secular and security credentials.

Some of these countries have not seen an Indian leader in 20 years. The immediate impact will be Modi just showing up. But if the Iranian corridor comes through, Indian leaves a soft footprint, and some new economic and military cooperation can be finalised, India could look at a Central Asia presence going beyond the rhetorical. Most populous central Asian state. Leader Islam Karimov wants stronger ties because of concerns about Taliban and Afghanistan and a desire to be less economically dependent on Russia and China.

Karimov, a Soviet-style dictator, notoriously boiled two of his political opponents in oil The largest and wealthiest central Asian state is also the closest to Russia. With huge mineral wealth, over half of India’s central Asian trade is with Kazakhstan. Because it was a base for a lot of Soviet hi-tech activity, India also has strong space and nuclear ties with this country.

Has 19 million people spread over an area almost the same size as India. Modi will be the first Indian PM in almost 20 years to visit. It has the world’s fourth largest natural gas reserves but lacks a pipeline to send gas to India. The US pushed for a Turkmenistan-Afghan-Pakistan-India pipeline, now taken up by China. If it succeeds, India will have its first land connection to central Asia. Else, a pipeline through Iran to Persian Gulf would also work.

Since death of strongman Saparmurat Niyazov in 2002, the country has been slowly opening up. Modi attends BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in here. India will become a full member of

the SCO. The smallest and most democratic central Asian state is the only one to have military exercises with India. Another country that has not seen an Indian PM visit in 20 years, it is sandwiched between China and Russia. An Indian visit here will be noticed in Beijing. Modi hopes to build a medical tourism link between the two countries as that would fund regular air flights.

Famed for its natural scenic beauty, Kyrgyzstan is often likened to Switzerland. India has worked most closely with the Tajiks over years, who were among the foreign supporters of the Northern Alliance against the Taliban. India also maintains a military hospital that once functioned as its only overseas base. But logistical difficulties and Russian pressure led New Delhi to roll back its presence. India needs to strengthen economic relations with this small state.

Three-quarters of the foreign aid India gives to central Asia goes to this country.