Having fielded Rahul during campaign, Congress braces for make-or-break result from final phase

GAME CHANGERS Muslims, EBCs and Dalits will influence the outcome of this phase

The fifth and final phase of polling for 57 assembly seats on Thursday will cap a bitterly fought election in Bihar where the narrative fluctuated from development to caste, job quota, beef, terror and black magic.

A better performance in this round across nine north and north-east districts will place either of the alliances (the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance and the Grand Alliance (GA) of JD(U), RJD and Congress) ahead in the race for government formation in the state.

Both alliances are aware that four of the nine districts have a concentration of the Muslim voters varying from 45% to 70% while the other five have a sizeable population of the EBCs and Dalits.

In 24 constituencies of Seemanchal region where Muslims are the largest chunk of voters, the GA is expected to enjoy an edge if the voting is guided by polarisation on communal lines.

But the presence of All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in six Seemanchal seats is worrying the GA. If the Asaduddin Owaisi factor works, it will largely damage the GA’s poll prospects and eventually benefit the NDA.

The GA faces a bigger threat from the presence of the NCP candidates in 18 constituencies in Katihar, Purnia, Kishanganj, Araria and Darbhanga districts. In Katihar, the NCP has fielded strong candidates in all the seven constituencies.

Besides AIMIM, the focus will also be on Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav’s Jan Adhikar Party in the Kosi belt. If the voting is done on caste lines, the GA can have the edge in 15 constituencies of Madhubani and Darbhanga districts of Mithilanchal and 13 constituencies of Kosi region.

In 2010, the BJP had bagged 23 seats, the JD(U) cornered 20 seats, the RJD got eight, the Congress won three, the LJP wrested two and one went to an Independent candidate.

The BJP has fielded a maximum of 38 candidates, while LJP nominees are contesting 11 seats in this phase. The RLSP has put up candidates in five constituencies and HAM-S in three. JD(U) candidates are trying their luck in 25 seats, RJD in 20 and Congress 12.

The poll will decide the fate of senior minister Bijendra Prasad Yadav (Supaul), RJD legislature party leader Abdul Bari Siddiqui (Alinagar), minister Narendra Narayan Yadav (Alamnagar) and Lalu Prasad’s close aide Bhola Yadav (Bahadurpur).

A total of 15,543,594 electors are eligible to vote to decide the fate of 827 candidates, including 58 women.

Polling will take place on 55 constituencies from the standard 7am-5pm except for two Maoist-affected constituencies of Simri Bhakhtiyarpur and Mahisi. Polling has been curtailed there by two hours, additional chief electoral officer R Lakshmanan said.