Mumbai horror revisited: 26/11 pattern in Paris attacks
The multiple assaults on civilian targets across Paris, which claimed 127 lives, had the Mumbai terrorist attack written all over it.
The 2008 assault on Mumbai by the Lashkar-e-Taiba marked the beginning of what terrorist experts refer to as “high impact, low cost” terror attacks. These are technically primitive attacks that go for high-profile civilian targets and are not as spectacular as destroying a skyscraper or hijacking an airplane.
Terrorists compensate by the cold-blooded massacre of civilians in as many different targets as possible. As they use only simple weapons, interception of these terror cells is more difficult. Not many people are involved in the preparation and logistics backup is minimal.
Since Edward Snowden’s revelations about electronic surveillance by agencies like the US National Security Agency, terrorist groups are more likely to avoid cellphones or internetbased communications. Written letters or face-to-face conversations are increasingly used them.
An estimated 20,000 to 30,000 foreign fighters have flocked to join the ranks of the Islamic State, which claimed the Paris attacks. They are largely drawn from Arab countries and Central Asia, but about 5,000 to 6,000 are from Europe.
Within Europe, France is the single largest source of IS recruits – a French parliamentary investigation estimated about half of all European recruits are from France. Up to 7,000 more were considered at risk of joining IS.
However, there is some logic to what IS is doing. Unlike Al Qaeda, IS controls territory and has declared itself the 21st century caliphate. It has tended to focus on foreign countries that joined the international coalition fighting IS.
Ultimately, IS must be fought since it obviously sees fomenting terrorist attacks against other countries as an acceptable policy. IS is clearly preparing a policy of inflicting enough damage to drive foreign governments from the coalition.
It has also been urging its foreign recruits to stay in their homelands and carry out attacks. The Russian airliner that blew up over Egypt, killing more than 240 people on board, has been claimed by IS as a response to Moscow’s intervention in Syria.
Some governments have turned tail – Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau pulled out of the anti-IS coalition as soon as he was elected. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, originally supportive of IS, were targeted when the two turned against IS under US pressure.
Noticeably, the US has yet to face a major IS attack and this is a testament to the strength of its domestic counterterrorism policies. But France was seen as a “hard state” when it came to terrorism and yet November 13 happened.
India has not been targeted. Our Mumbai attack was sourced from Pakistan – though the tactics followed have clearly been mimicked – but with an increasing number of Afghan and Pakistani groups declaring allegiance to IS and hundreds of Indians, Maldivians and Bangladeshis having fallen to the terror state’s siren call, this may only be a matter of time.
Remember, IS attacks for reasons other than just joining the international coalition – as the supposed caliphate it feels it must defend self-defined “Islamic interests” around the world.