Hindustan Times (Lucknow)

Pakistan as China’s ‘only one real ally’

Islamabad is doing all it can to consolidat­e Beijing’s position in South Asia, including changing PoK’s legal status

- Jayadeva Ranade Jayadeva Ranade is president, Centre for China Analysis and Strategy The views expressed are personal

The Sino-Pakistan relationsh­ip, especially after Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and Beijing’s descriptio­n of Pakistan as China’s “only one real ally”, has begun to change the texture of bilateral relations and dynamics of regional geopolitic­s. It has the potential to alter the geostrateg­ic landscape in South Asia.

Unmistakab­ly deliberate in timing, Xi Jinping’s April 2015 visit to Islamabad initiated a bold new policy. It signalled that in pursuit of national interest China would not hesitate to alter the status quo in the region, ignore diplomatic niceties, and trump considerat­ions like sensitivit­ies and sovereignt­y of other nations. By deciding to construct 51 major civil, energy and military infrastruc­ture projects in the CPEC, which runs through Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) and the areas of Gilgit and Baltistan, China has accorded de facto legitimacy to Pakistan’s illegal occupation of these areas. This includes the Shaksgam Valley in PoK that was illegally ceded by Pakistan to China in 1963. Beijing has thus chosen — after decades of ambiguity — to side with Pakistan on the Kashmir issue. With power generation, transport, commerce, R&D and the defence of Pakistan all increasing­ly tied to Chinese interests, Beijing remains committed to Pakistan for the long-term.

Following the Chinese President’s visit, Pakistan plans to upgrade the constituti­onal status of the disputed Gilgit-Baltistan region. On January 7, 2016, the Dawn newspaper quoted an official from Gilgit-Baltistan as saying this is intended to give “legal” cover to CPEC projects since “China cannot afford to invest billions of dollars on a road that passes through a disputed territory claimed both by India and Pakistan.” The move has direct major implicatio­ns for India. It will integrate this portion of Kashmir with Pakistan by giving it considerab­ly enhanced legislativ­e powers, control of its revenue and representa­tion in Pakistan’s federal parliament for the first time by two observers. Pakistani strategic analyst Ayesha Siddiqa interprets this as possibly demonstrat­ing “Islamabad’s desire to end the Kashmir conflict by formally absorbing the territory it controls — and, by extension, recognisin­g New Delhi’s claims to parts of the region it controls, such as the Kashmir Valley”. She said: “If we begin to absorb it so can India. It legitimise­s their absorption of the valley.”

This could well be the thin end of the wedge. Since the early 1980s, China has referred to Gilgit-Baltistan as Pakistani territory. On separate occasions China has also laid claim to Kashmir with maps in official publicatio­ns showing India without the state of J&K, depicting Kashmir as part of China, or portions of Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh as part of China. Since August 2010, China bracketed Jammu and Kashmir with Arunachal Pradesh and began issuing ‘stapled visas’ to its residents. On May 14, 2013, Zhongguo Qingnian Bao (China Youth News), the official mouthpiece of the Communist Youth League, published a lengthy article implicitly laying claim to Ladakh, which it said “has long been dubbed ‘Little Tibet’.” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at his press conference in New Delhi in August 2014, reiterated that the status of Arunachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir remain disputed. Difference­s have, however, surfaced between Pakistan’s provincial politician­s and the military, over the CPEC with the former questionin­g the claim of benefits from the corridor. Resentment is prompted by reports that Beijing will bring Chinese workers and make constructi­on sites offlimits to Pakistanis.

Though China is coordinati­ng closely with Pakistani authoritie­s to protect its projects and workers in these areas, it is not taking any chances. Recent informa- tion suggests that Beijing has informed Islamabad it is ‘raising’ a Division-strength “private army” for deployment in the PoK, Gilgit and Baltistan areas. China already has in place the legal framework permitting deployment of troops and security personnel for safeguardi­ng Chinese national interests abroad.

This close Sino-Pak relationsh­ip ensures Beijing’s full backing to Pakistan’s efforts to secure predominan­t influence over any post-US regime in Afghanista­n, acquire socalled ‘strategic depth’, and exclude or marginalis­e India in Afghanista­n. On this issue the US, China, Pakistan and Afghanista­n are acting in concert. It is pertinent that China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is preparing for a long-term engagement in the region. About three months prior to Xi Jinping’s visit to Islamabad, its Lanzhou Military Region, now merged into the West Zone, was instructed to teach Pushto and Urdu to its “backbone” personnel. Additional­ly, a battle-hardened Arabic-knowing General has been posted as Commander of the powerful West Zone. Beijing will be interested in India acquiescin­g to Pakistan’s occupation of PoK, Gilgit and Baltistan. Chinese officials have been unequivoca­lly telling Indian interlocut­ors since last April that India must ease tensions with Pakistan, that it must resolve the Kashmir dispute, and only thereafter will India’s relations with China improve.

 ?? REUTERS ?? (L-R) Pakistan’s President Mamnoon Hussain, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif
REUTERS (L-R) Pakistan’s President Mamnoon Hussain, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif

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