Parties chart strategies ahead of UP polls
SP, BJP, BSP and Congress face crucial challenges in the run-up to the 2017 elections
In the heart of Lucknow stands the Uttar Pradesh assembly building, circled by offices of the state’s key political parties.
Over the next eight months, the decisions taken at these offices will determine the future of almost 200 million people.
THE AKHILESH FACTOR
On Vikramaditya Marg, the Samajwadi Party office is abuzz with conversation about next year’s elections. The biggest thing going for the ruling party is chief minister Akhilesh Yadav’s image.
“His sincerity cannot be doubted. He listens, he tries to solve problems, and he is more interested in development than politics,” says a city businessman.
But this is where the problems begin.
Akhilesh, critics point out, can maintain this clean image because others — his father, uncles are doing the ‘real politics’ synonymous with corruption and patronage. This has resulted in multiple power centres — the reason why law and order is weak.
“Police do not have the confidence to respond quickly because they don’t know how political bosses will respond,” says a police official. This sense of lawlessness is the SP’s biggest handicap.
The perceived patronage to only Yadavs has alienated other castes. But the irony is that Yadavs claim the SP ‘appeases’ Muslims. It is this image that the BJP hopes to exploit.
SEARCH FOR THE FACE
Bang opposite the Vidhan Sabha is the state office of the BJP, which is struggling with a crisis of leadership.
“We are not winning. We need a CM face desperately. Rajnath Singh is our best bet,” admits a party MLA. But whether Singh will take on the responsibility — especially when victory is uncertain — is not clear.
The BJP is, however, working systematically to consolidate support among upper castes, and expand among non-Yadav backward castes and non-Jatav Dalit communities. Look no further than the recent Union cabinet expansion — where one Brahman, one Kurmi, and one Dalit were included — for proof.
An aide to an MLA said, “Frankly, if we have to win, we have to polarise. We need more Kairanas. We need Hindu votes, including Dalits.” This is precisely Mayawati’s nightmare scenario. THE INVISIBLE LADY
As one turns into Mall Avenue, the grand Bahujan Samaj Party office is almost entirely deserted. Statues of BR Ambedkar, Kanshi Ram and Mayawati are inside.
Mayawati’s focus on building monuments and statues has come under fire and she promised there would be no fresh constructions if re-elected. The BSP’s big advantage though is her image as a strong leader.
From a sarpanch in Amroha in west UP to a boatman on the ghats of Varanasi, we heard a common refrain. “Under Mayawati, the administration was tight. Law and order was excellent. There were no riots.”
But Mayawati faces a real challenge in getting her vote alignment right. A key leader, Swami Prasad Maurya, resigned, denting the party’s support among other backward classes.
A Pasi leader, RK Chaudhary, left the party on June 30. Mayawati has to show she has a social coalition in place and is winning — only then Muslims will switch to her from the SP. A DISTANT FOURTH
Down the road from Mayawati’s house is Nehru Bhawan — the Congress office.
Virendra Madan, a spokesperson, explains the Congress decline with a polemic against BJP’s communalism, the SP and BSP’s ‘casteism’.
“Under Congress, caste was never discussed. Now, even the bureaucracy is divided on caste lines.” Many would argue this is a reminder of the party’s inability to accommodate the backwards.
Strategist Prashant Kishor has brought new energy into a moribund organisation but unless Priyanka Vadra is the CM face, enthusiasm might not translate into votes.
As parties polish their strategy, the country’s attention will shift to historic city.
Lucknow has a turbulent year ahead.