Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty
An old Pashtun saying postulates, ‘Avenge one must. But if one plans to seek revenge in a hundred years, he is probably rushing things!’
Having spent a lifetime trying to read and unravel the many recesses within the maverick Pakistani military mind, which now transcends into its state and deep-state strategic thinking process too, corroborates its total embrace of what the Pashtuns had hypothesised centuries ago.
Post creation of Bangladesh and the humiliating drubbing that the Pakistani army received, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in his moment of truth, had betrayed this collective sentiment by voicing those satanic words loudly to the world, “to inflict a thousand cuts to bleed India”.
The Pakistani army, having realised that it was in no position to stand up to the might of the Indian armed forces in a conventional one-on-one, started the process of instituting several physical and psychological measures to further its aim spelt out by Bhutto. Emerging geopolitics in South Asia presented them an opportunity to cozy up with the United States who were uncomfortable with the erstwhile Soviet Russia’s presence in Afghanistan. The Pakistani military mind seized this opportunity to create ‘taliban mujahideens’ who would ultimately drive the Soviets out, in line with Uncle Sam’s desires.
Having obtained legitimacy of irregular warfare along its western borders, financed and supported by US and Saudi Arabia, Pakistan went ahead furthering its own agenda of ‘bleeding India’ by upping the nuclear ante on the one hand and formulating its offensive defence strategic blueprint known amongst military circles as ‘Beg Doctrine’, crafted by Gen Mirza Aslam Beg (Army Chief under Zia Ul Haq’s dictatorship). The doctrine theorised the legitimacy of taking war into Indian soil (through irregular assets, created and nurtured for this purpose), to offset the former’s lack of ‘strategic depth’ arising out of fear of Indian forces’ ability to split them vertically along Indus (along Sukkur-Bahawalpur-Multan corridor) in a conventional duel.
After failed attempts to cash in on the shortlived Punjab crisis in India, their politicomilitary focus returned to the tried and tested methodology of fomenting trouble inside India by dramatically overplaying sectarianism inside J&K, in keeping with the emergence of jihadist phenomenon having found currency within south west Asia engulfing the entire world with alarming rapidity.
Strategically, nothing could be more profound for Pakistan military establishment, who now had the option to mitigate its own risk of asymmetry (which it had experienced first-hand during 1971) by outsourcing its own ‘desire’ to the well-established numerous non state collegia under state patronage guised as seminaries, created and controlled by its intelligence arm, the ISI.
Pakistan regularly employed this strategy to its advantage with impunity under blatant deniability, getting emboldened each time by India’s political unwillingness to exercise hard options, supposedly under the threat of nuclear bogey.
Thus, post Uri attack, when the Indian Special Forces carried out a near perfect precision manoeuvre on a wide frontage across the LoC, the reaction from Pakistan (military) was denial: a response that they have mastered over the years in all their cross-border indulgences. But knowing their mind and their quivering urge for revenge, one knows that they will respond.
It may be pertinent to note that although Pakistan military may not have felt materially hurt by our strike since it was on terror launch pads sans collateral damage, but deep down they have definitely been ‘shamed’, which is far too unbearable for their ‘military masculinity’.
The chest thumping one has witnessed on TV channels and print notwithstanding, these are times when we as a nation must anticipate and be prepared for their next move. While the LoC and even parts of the international border will remain lighted up to keep the Indian security establishment tied down, Pakistan military is most likely to try and create a major incident in our hinterland, using its proxy sleeper cells/ lone wolves nourished on our soil.
Given the heightened political activity preceding state elections, due in seven states, coupled with the festive season that will see large congregations and occasional lowering of guard, the entire security matrix and the public alike have to remain overly cautious and conscious of the impending danger.
Pakistan’s game plan would be to orchestrate such a strike within India’s heartland, which post launch will obviously be vehemently denied by Pakistan and Nawaz Sharif may probably call in as the first sympathiser. The ISPR controlled media will assuage the local public sentiment that a revenge has been effected. The mullahs happy, the Generals happy! Raheel Sharif ’s sure ticket to upgrade himself as Field Marshal! (Views of the writer are
personal)